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Wednesday, June 9, 1999

Funding a "near-war" 

 
The weight of informed opinion is veering around to the view that the "war-like situation" in Kargil is going to last for a considerable length of time. Even the military loses no opportunity of drawing attention to the rugged terrain of the region, and the fact that the intruders control the heights, which makes ejecting them a laborious and time-consuming process. But what does this war mean in terms of financial costs? Some guesstimates say that the operation is costing Rs 15 crore a day, which adds up to a tidy sum if the fighting continues for a couple of months. Some experts have even opined that we may have to wait till August for more favourable weather. Other commentators have said that even after the infiltrators have been dislodged from the ridges they occupy, it will be necessary to maintain a permanent Indian presence there. That will mean a replication of the situation prevailing in the Siachen glacier, where the cost to the army of maintaining a presence is said to be about Rs 3.5 crore a day.Since the ridges which are currently being fought over are spread over a larger area, the cost of holding on to them will be at least thrice as much as in Siachen.

These costs have not been budgeted for. Equally obviously, there will be no stinting of funds so far as defence is concerned. There is also the probability that the current fighting will lead to a reassessment of the country's defence needs. Under these circumstances, the finance ministry needs to be clear about the effect which this expenditure is going to have on the government's finances, and how the costs are going to be funded. Given the current political situation, there seems to be no alternative to financing the operations by extra borrowing, or by curtailing government expenditure. In the latter case, it will be the government's capital expenditure which will be affected, since there is hardly any scope to reduce outlays on government salaries. But curbing capital expenditure could prove to be a dampener for the incipient economicrecovery, the first green shoots of which are visible. On the other hand, extra borrowing will mean losing control of the fiscal deficit, although it may be argued that, with commodity prices low and a good harvest, inflation is not a worry at present, though interest rates will be affected. Also, since a large part of our defence equipment is acquired from abroad, buying new weapons will mean a larger import bill, which will pressure the rupee, a consequence already being anticipated by the forex markets. The finance ministry needs to put in place a financial strategy to fund the fighting without letting it short-circuit the recovery.

Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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