Who is afraid of Kargil? Not the investors if you examine the market closely with a microscope. Yes the Sensex is apparently down by 49 points, but investment has picked up in several counters with volume surge. Some of these counters are Bhel, Gujarat Ambuja, BSES, HLL, Hindalco (huge volume), ICICI, HPCL, Mahindra & Mahindra, Larsen, MTNL, Ranbaxy, Tata Chem, Telco and Tisco, Ballarpur Industries, Ashok Leyland, Bharat Forge, Century, Bharat Petro.The Sensex got pulled down by NIIT, Infosys, Reliance, SBI and ACC amongst others. It declined by 49 points to close at 3902. Digital Equipment revealed weakness when it dipped to Rs 427. All the software scrips saw a volume sell off. One should now watch out for a reversal. Pharma scrips have shown some life with volume pick up at some counters like EMerck and Ranbaxy.
The market opened on a confident note at 3966, some 15 points above the previous close of 3951. It also posted an intra day high of 4002, which was higher than the previous high of 3952. Eventhe intra day loow of 3892 was higher than Monday's low of 3892. It was only at close the market went below Monday's performance by closing at 3902, loosing 49 points over the previous close of 3951.
The 12 day exponential moving average is at 3975 and it is interesting to note that the intra day high penetrated through this level upwards. Surely the Sensex has been under pressure since May 28. But some sophisticated indicators clearly point to the fact that the index has been repeatedly trying to bounce up.
I would also like to call attention to the fact that the index has dipped post May 28 to 3830, only once. This level is an important co-ordinate in as much as this was the opening level (3835) on May 31, when the market started recovering from the shock of May 28.
The other important feature to note is that today's trading volume at the BSE was higher at Rs 1713 crore as compared to that of Rs 1151 crore on Monday.
Reports from Kargil front indicate that the Indian Army has consolidated itsposition further. The Ministry of External Affairs spokesman also indicated that the Army has no plans to cross the LoC. Also there is no special activity on the Indo- China border. Sure there can always be an element of surprise in the Indo-Pak border. But if one were to go my market statistics, investors have been picking up in volume.
Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.