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Sunday, June 27, 1999

Rate hike is on the cards 

AGENCIES  
New York , June 26: Investors are all but certain the Federal Reserve will lift short-term interest rates at its policy meeting next week to keep inflation from accelerating and allow the US economy to celebrate its ninth year of uninterrupted expansion. The question du jour now, it seems, is whether the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee -- the arm of the Fed that decides where interest rates should be -- will act just once or whether more rate increases will be on their agenda down the road.

"The market is concerned about not if, but how much over the course of the year the Fed will move," said Michael Gregory, a senior economist at Lehman Brothers in New York. "There's been a lot of discussion about more than one rate increase, which is what's concerning the markets." Comparisons of past Fed maneuverings have been all the rage of late on Wall Street -- a game market participants love to play. This is a repeat of 1994, some economists argue, when the Fed steered the economythrough what some describe as a "soft landing," raising interest rates in a series of moves to slow growth and keep consumer prices from rising substantially.

No, it's 1997, others say, when the Fed opted to lift short-term rates just once - just to show financial markets it had a grip on things. Well, as far as Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan is concerned, it's June 1999, and he and his colleagues are most interested in maintaining the now-longest peacetime economic expansion in US history by ensuring inflationary pressures stay away, Gregory said. "As far as the Fed goes, it really isn't inflation on the ground that's a concern, it's inflation down the road," Gregory said. "For a very long time, they've offset that with global concerns, but there doesn't appear to be any more world crises to worry about."

Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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