They are firmly of the view that the end-season stock this time may well exceed 45 lakh bales of 170 kg each, though the AICTA has placed it at 141 lakh bales.

In this context they point out that the AICTA has projected mill consumption at 143 lakh bales against 143.24 lakh bales in the previous season. This may mean that mills might be consuming this season almost the same quantity of cotton as in the earlier season, notwithstanding their persistent complaints that their production and sales were depressed.

It might be interesting to note that the output of cotton yarn in the country in 1998-99 has been lower by 8.63 per cent compared with the same in the earlier year, implying that mill consumption of cotton might be shrinking, but the AICTA seems to have ignored thisfactor.

While releasing these projections a spokesman of the AICTA, no doubt, said that this estimate of mill offtake was based on the figures of monthly consumption of cotton during the first six months of the season available from the Textile Commissioner's office which showed a monthly average consumption rate of 11.90 lakh bales.

The AICTA was apparently not much bothered that its reliance on these figures which it had no means of cross-checking, conflicted with the figures of falling cotton yarn and fabric production given out in the ``EICA Statistical Abstract Cotton and Textiles'' which was released at the same meeting.

The decline in cotton yarn and fabric production should imply that cotton consumption might be shrinking. Trade circles further argue that the AICTA should not have closed its eyes to reports that many powerloom units in Bhiwandi were keeping their shutters closed for three days a week, indicating a substantial decline in their manufacturing activity.

Furthermore, they arguethat one may have to overstretch one's imagination a little, if one were to assume mill consumption of cotton this season might be almost the same with a fractional difference of just 0.16 per cent, despite the closure of as many as 80 spinning mills and 13 composite units in 1998-99. The AICTA has placed the current season's crop at 162.50 lakh bales of 170 kg each, but its statistics of actual arrivals by mid-June indicate a lead of 6.19 lakh bales over the same in the corresponding period of the earlier season. Common sense might suggest that crop projection should have under the circumstances shown an increase to that extent over the previous season's output of 158 lakh bales. Trade circles also feel that the crop in Gujarat has been underestimated.

So far as imports are concerned, the AICTA spokesman explained that actual shipments so far were just of the order of 55,000 bales, but the Textile Commissioner's office had told them that exports eventually might reach 1.00 to 1.25 lakh bales thisseason.

The AICTA apparently saw nothing wrong in going a small step further and placing its export projection at 1.50 lakh bales, though fresh export transactions seemed to be at a standstill.

In regard to non-mill consumption, the AICTA has assumed that it would be of the order of 9.00 lakh bales against 9.10 lakh bales in the previous season. If this estimate were correct it might mean that while the cotton-based mill and powerloom industries were languishing, non-mill industries using cotton might be having a very good time, as implied from nearly the same cotton consumption as in the earlier season with a marginal difference of just 1.10 per cent.

Major consumers in that sector are mattress producers, rajai-makers and upholsters. However no one knows for certain how many such units are there in the country, what is their aggregate capacity and to what extent they might be using fresh cotton, cotton-waste, or even old cotton and cotton substitutes. It might therefore, be very difficult to supportthe AICTA's arbitrary assumption in this regard. Trade circles fear that unless the AICTA adopts more objective and realistic approach in such matters, it might find it difficult to safeguard its credibility.