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Wednesday, July 7, 1999

Markets await decisive signals from Kargil as Sensex hits 22-month high 

Partha Pratim Sinha  
Mumbai, July 6: The markets are waiting for some definite signs of withdrawal of Pakistani troops from Indian territory. After Monday's fireworks which pushed the Sensex up 112 points, on Tuesday, the last day of the current settlement on the National Stock Exchange, markets remained range-bound with the BSE Sensex closing 26.30 points up and the S&P CNX Nifty gaining 11 points.

The highlight of the day was the Sensex touching its 22-month high at 4350 points. Earlier, in April 1998, the index had touched 4322 points while the all-time high was at 4605 reached in August 1997. And despite the relative calm, the day's turnover on BSE jumped up by more than Rs 300 crore to Rs 2103.63 crore, compared to Rs 1797 crore on Monday. During mid-session on Tuesday, the Skindia GDR Index, the benchmark for the Indian GDRs, was down 2.05 per cent at 865.67 points over its Monday close.

On Tuesday, the Sensex opened higher at 4326.77 points and touched a high of 4350.40 points before profit-booking set in to take thescrip to the day's low at 4307.17 points. However, it closed higher at 4332.70 points against its Monday close of 4306.40 points.

The S&P CNX Nifty, on the other hand, opened at 1230.30 points, also the day's low, went up to a high of 1246.40 points and closed lower at 1241.25 points.

Marketmen are upbeat that the bourses actually went up, albeit marginally, on the last day of the current settlement on NSE.

``Even a 26 point gain is a very positive sign, reflecting the markets' inherent strengths. On Wednesday, we can expect the NSE to open substantially higher,'' says Rajiv Sampat at Parag Parikh Financial Advisory Services. And "The Sensex is likely to open with a gap of 50 points (upward)," says Chirag Sangvi.

However, once the scrips gain ground, brokers expect another round of profit-booking in the second half of Wednesday. According to Ambreesh Bagila, ``4321 was the resistance level and the Sensex has not decisively crossed that level. Though I expect the market to open higher on Wednesday,those levels are not likely to be sustained and profit bookings will resume during the close of the session.''

A look at the movement of the pivotals substantiate the view. During the day, pivotals moved up during the opening session, but faced with profit-booking during the later half of the day, closed lower. SBI, after touching the day's high at Rs 260.40, closed lower at Rs 256.45, Tisco closed at Rs 156.50 while the high was at Rs 162.5, Telco closed at Rs 217 after touching Rs 223 and index heavyweight HLL closed at Rs 2417 against its day's high of Rs 2460.

Several brokers expect the market to reach the 4600-level soon. They are awating definite steps on withdrawl of Pakistani troops. However, Sangvi is not so bullish about the market. "By the last week of July and the fist week of August, the market will go down till the 4100-level. Thereafter, we can see the Sensex to rally up to the 4500-level. But the sustenance of the level would, to a greater extent, depend on the last quarter results whichwould start flowing from the next week itself."

Tuesday's market activity revolved around the index-based counters like Tisco, Telco, Grasim and SBI. Among the side counters, Bhel, Gujarat Gas and ICICI Bank were on the upper end of the circuit and closed at those levels.

UTI was reported to have sold at the counters like Indian Rayon, Tisco and Reliance while bought at the NIIT counter.

FII buying picks up

Foreign institutional investors, according to brokers, are just waiting on the fence to jump into the markets once the current border problems are settled. However, if the latest FII investment figures released by the Sebi are any indication, they have already started buying into the Indian market.

During the first three trading sessions of the current month, the net FII inflow is at Rs 215.6 crore. Compared to this, the FIIs had brought in Rs 418 crore during the turbulent month of June when the Kargil problem almost looked liked blowing into a full fledged war. And since its June 30close of 4140.73 points, the BSE Sensex had moved up by around 140 points.

Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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