However, collection figures and performance of various sectors of the industry in subsequent months prove that he was right.

It is not only the industrial recovery alone, but also the better tax administration coupled with steps taken in the budget which have helped in improving tax realisation.

Amit Mitra, secretary general, Ficci, also subscribed to the view that encouraging trend in the indirect tax collections has been prompted by both the industrial recovery and the measures taken by finance minister Yashwant Sinha towards rationbalisation of the tax structure. "The actual industrial recovery will be visible only after October when the market picks up," felt Mitra. The industry during the initial months of the fiscal recorded a growth rate of over 7 per cent.

Revenue secretaryChowdhary has admitted that collection efficiency has played its part in the growth of indirect tax realisation in the first quarter of the financial year. The Central Board of Excise and Customs (CBEC) is charting future course of action in the conference of chief commissioners being held in Delhi.

The excise collections up to June, 1999 was Rs 12,663 crore showing an increase of 29.45 per cent over the corresponding period collection of Rs.9,783 crore in the previous year. The buoyancy was witnessed in different collection zones, indicating signs of industrial recovery. Only Mumbai and Jaipur zones have shown less than 10 per cent growth in the first three months as compared to similar period last year.

According to the revenue department sources, substantial part of this growth has been contributed by the higher collections from petroleum products. This has become possible because of changes in the rates of excise duties and some new capacity addition.

Some of the other industries which have alsoshown good growth in clearances and revenue include cement, iron and steel, consumer goods and consumer durables/electronics, motor vehicles (excluding LCVs/HCVs), pharmaceuticals etc.

Officials feel that the restructuring of excise duty slabs into three in the budget has pushed the buoyancy in excise collection. The 8 per cent and 16 per cent slabs being the main contributors.

CBEC is currently engaged in analysing the detailed revenue trend in respect of important industries in different zones and formulating strategy for meeting the targets in the coming months.

On the customs side, collections up to June, 1999 totalled Rs 10,489 crore. This shows an increase of only 12 per cent over the corresponding period of last year. In absolute terms, there is an increase of Rs.1,128 crore till June, 1999 as compared to collection of Rs 9,361 crore up to June, 1998.

According to revenue department the customs collection trend indicate that demand for imported inputs and capital goods for the domesticmanufacturing sector has started going up. The rise in international oil prices, too, has contributed its bit to higher customs realisation in the first quarter.

The customs collection during the first three months of the fiscal, however, has fallen short of the target. The zone-wise comparision shows that realisation have remained sluggish in most customs houses except Kandla. The growth rate is barely 12 per cent as against the yearly target of 23 per cent.

The biggest custom house, Mumbai, has shown a growth of 6.7 per cent followed by Calcutta custom house registering a growth of 5.8 per cent.For Chennai, the growth is 11.3 per cent. Even for other commissionerates including major airports and ICDs, the trend is not uniform, and some of them-having large estimates like Sahara air cargo complex and Bangalore customs have so far shown a downward trend as compared to last year.

The CBEC on its part is contemplating steps to arrest slow growth in customs realisation in the later part of theyear.

Finance minister Yashwant Sinha has lauded CBEC for its achievements in the first quarter of 1999-2000 and has asked them to prepare a concrete plan for achieving the target fixed for the financial year.

The Budget estimates for 1999-2000 have been placed at Rs 63,565 crore for excise and at Rs 50,369 crore for customs. These are respectively 21.8 per cent and 23.1 per cent higher than the last year's collections, placed at Rs 52,187 crore for central excise and Rs 40,917 crore for customs. With the industrial recovery round the corner and the efforts being made to plug the loopholes, it is likely that the revenue department might be able to achieve the ambitious collection targets set in the budget.