In the early years after Independence, it was Indian National Congress (INC) all the way. The party garnered over 40 per cent of the votes polled. In the absence of any opposition, barring a few good independent candidates, people of the state voted for INC. It won majority of the seats in the 1952, 1957 and 1962 elections.

The emergence of Dravidian parties, Dravida Kazhagam and later Dravida Munnetra Kazhzgam (DMK) in 1960s saw INC losing its ground steadily. The split in INC into Congress(O) and Congress-I only added to the party's woes. By the 1967 elections DMK had spread far and wide and polled as much as 35.78 per cent of the votes.

From the 1971 elections, the preference of the people in the state for stability at Centre became clearer when they voted comprehensively for the combination which had the capacity to give a stable government. In the 1971 elections, the Indira Gandhi faction of Congress, Congress-I aligned with DMK. The alliance won 36 of the 39 seats setting the trend for alliance politics in Tamil Nadu.

In the 1977 elections, people voted in the Congress-I/AIADMK (a breakaway faction of DMK) combine by given it 35 of the 39 seats. From then on Congress-I has been tying up with either of the Dravidian parties, DMK or AIADMK to sweep the polls on the strength of the fact that it was the only party in the centre which can offer a stable government at the centre.The 1996 elections brought about a change in the trend. Though Congress-I continued its alliance with AIADMK, themassive anti-Jayalalitha wave that swept the state saw the people, for the first time, voting in the DMK-Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC) alliance, a combine bereft of a national party.

In the 1998 election people once again exercised their franchise in favour of stability and AIADMK-led front which had BJP as a partner won 30 of the 39 seats.

If the people of the state vote for stability again then NDA is definitely starting off with an advantage in the coming elections. It is the only formation which is projecting a prime minister. Vajpayee does seem to enjoy some amount of sympathy for the way he lost the confidence vote and his handling of the Kargil issue could well be a bonus. More importantly, the main opposition, ie., the AIADMK-Congress front is seen as the tormentor of the previous government which has thrust this election on the people.