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Friday, August 20, 1999
Tough options in oil
The government's new exploration and licensing policy (NELP), inviting private initiative in oil exploration, has fallen short of attracting raving enthusiasm. With the dramatic rise in crude prices, enforced by the Opec cartel, the first round of bids under NELP should have attracted a rush of foreign bids. But only 10 foreign companies have shown interest (including three from the United States, led by Enron); there are big names from other countries (Petronas Carigali of Malaysia, OAO Gazprom of Russia and so forth) but they have not been gung ho bidders. The absence of Shell, which recently scored a hit in Rajasthan, is conspicuous. It could be that the oil search majors have been attracted to West Africa, Brazil, Gulf of Mexico and Canada. The real surprise under NELP is the interest shown by private Indian companies (six), with Reliance Industries making a bid for 14 blocks, next only to ONGC which has bid for 15 blocks. Reliance, a refinery major, is said to have joined hands with Nikko Resources ofCanada.The government offered 48 blocks for competitive bidding, but attracted 45 bids for no more than 27 blocks. There will be disappointment over the narrow focus of interest of exploring companies, but digging for oil is a risky business, a hit or miss affair even where the blocks have a reasonable chance of spewing oil. Besides, India is viewed as a difficult country. This is hardly alien prejudice. Even the ONGC-Indian Oil-Gail combine has refrained from stretching the vision to all 48 blocks. A few successes in the 27 blocks now sought could turn the tide, but so much depends on chance.India badly needs oil finds on a par with Bombay High. In the recent past, the policy focus has been on establishing refining capacity. That saves on processing costs; besides, refineries at dispersed locations improve the efficiency of distribution. By the year-end, refining capacity will have crossed the 100 million-tonne mark. But throughput based on domestic crude has stagnated around 30 million tonnes. Thus, witha reduction in imports of oil products (diesel, kerosene, etc), crude imports are burgeoning. India could export products to pay for a small portion of its crude imports. This is unlikely, since domestic consumption is accelerating with the the revival of industrial growth. The economy is fuel-intensive (even agriculture guzzles oil via tractors and pumpsets for irrigation as also fertilisers based on naphtha and fuel oil). The economy will become even more fuel-intensive if the GDP growth rises to the targeted 7-8 per cent a year. India needs major oil finds. But lucky strikes are in the lap of the gods. The working assumption must be to boost non-oil exports to pay for oil imports. Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.

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