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Tuesday, August 24, 1999

Sensex up 83 pts; Tata stocks in focus 

Partha Pratim Sinha  
Mumbai, Aug 23: The markets remained bullish on Monday with all-round buying witnessed in almost all the pivotal stocks on the first day of the current settlement on the Bombay Stock Exchange, while the BSE Sensex, with a net gain of 83.97 points closed at 4729.78, the S&P CNX Nifty on the National Stock Exchange, before closing at 1369.70 points, touched its all-time high at 1375.95.

The Tata group stocks, particularly Telco, Tisco, Tata Finance and Tata Power, and Zee Telefilms were the day's star performers. Marketmen feel that the undertone is extremely bullish and the Sensex can cross its historical all-time high of 4810 during the mid-session on Wednesday.

According to market players, there are at least three strong reasons for the market to open firm on Monday. According to Rajiv Sampat at Parag Parikh Financial Advisory Services, ``lower badla rates of last Saturday and some unwinding of positions on the BSE prior to that'' were the two reasons which pushed the Sensex up around 70-points in theopening. And thereafter, ``as the domestic institutions did not sell aggressively,'' the markets remained strong and closed only marginally lower than the day's high.

According to market players, the domestic institutions are understood to have received some orders from the government at the centre asking them to refrain from selling during the run-up to the polls. On the face of net selling by the FIIs (and only with bouts of buying) ``the markets would have gone down if the FIs also sold in the market,'' said a city-based broker.

On Monday, the Sensex opened with a huge gap at 4713.34 (also the day's low) and touched the day's high at 4766, only 45 points away from its all-time high of 4810. It closed at 4729.78 against its Friday close of 4645.81 points. The Nifty after touching its all-time high of 1375.95 points, closed at 1369.70 points against its previous close of 1347.30 points- a net gain of 22.40 points.

For Tuesday though most brokers were optimistic, there were a few who struck a cautiousnote. Market players are pinning a lot of hope on the index heavyweight Hindustan Lever, since it has remained at the same level for the quite sometime. ``In the last 300 point rise in the Sensex, HLL's contribution is negligible. Also the scrip is entering the no-delivery mode next Wednesday. We are expecting the stock to go in for a major rally in the next few days,'' says Chirag Sanghvi at Asit C Mehta Investment Intermediaries.

And a rally in the SBI counter is possible, on Wednesday, if the US Federal Reserve decides to keep the interest rate unchanged after its meeting on Tuesday. ``At the current levels, SBI looks attractive but the only worrying factor is the US Fed's meeting on Tuesday which will decide on a probable interest rate hike in the US. In case the Fed rate hike comes through, SBI's margins will be under pressure. Or else, the SBI scrip will be ready for pick,'' says Sanghvi.

However, a few of the market players believe that there are enough reasons to be on the guard now. According toAlok Churiwala of Churiwala Securities, ``one of the major concerns at the moment (for the market) is that the FIIs are not actively buying, although there are talks of warehousing and bookbuilding for these investors. The other concern, though not as big, is that the monsoons in the the north is not so active this time. Aggravation of these factors could spell bad for the market.''

``The market is increasingly becoming information driven and the day traders are likely to get slaughtered in case they want to generally ride the tide,'' warns Sampat. According to Sampat, ``a Senex level of 4850 is possible but the 5000-level looks too optimistic.''

On Monday, apart from the Tata group stocks, the counters like Carrier Aircon, Reliance Petro, United Phosphorus, Birla 3M, Escorts, KLG Systel, German Remedies, Crompton Greaves, Crest Communication and HFCL also witnessed good buying activity.

Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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