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Tuesday, August 24, 1999

Long-term indicators signal a buy 

K Seshadri  
The Sensex went up by 84 points to close at 4730, thanks to an upsurge well spread in the index portfolio.

The market opened strongly bullish with the Sensex at 4713, jumping 67 points over Friday's closing of 4646. The index moved up to an intra day high of 4767, which surpassed the last high of 4651. The day's low was 4713, which was a whopping 111 points jump over Friday's low of 4602. At closing, the index had gained 84 points.

The index now has a challenge to scale 4810 posted on July, 15. In the technical sense, this need not be a big deal, if one compares with the rise that started on July, 9. At that point, the index took off at 4353 and peaked to 4810 in just four sessions.

Monday's rise was made possible by quite a few scrips. Prominent among them was Reliance Industries, Bhel, Tata Steel, Tata Power, Tata Engineering, Castrol and BSES. ITC and Infosys rose marginally but being heavy weight added to the index's uplift. Looking over the Sensex portfolio, I see that stock prices in pivotals arein a process, where they need consolidation. The potential danger, however, needs some contemplation.

The serious dip on August,19, was because of a uniform profit-taking on most of the index scrips. The current situation is just an extension of the same phenomenon. If the index has to move up further, there has to be gain in most of these pivotals.

That is not impossible. But at the current prices, these scrips are perched in an intermediate zone. The consolidation can happen if the market players feel uniformly bullish for the entire market. What one should be prepared to look forward in the immediate future, is the possibility of a slow down in scrips that leaped up today. But the slack will have to be taken up by others.

The stochastic on the daily chart for Sensex is showing signs of fatigue. However, the longer term indices are signalling a buy. In the ultimate analysis, hold on to your positions and give an opportunity for consolidation. And that could result in a pay off.

Copyright © 1999Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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