A look at some election promises and manifestoes leaves me more confused than ever. What strikes you at first is how similar these manifestoes are. Perhaps this is a result of a common perception of the problems we face. But both parties are as vague as the other about how precisely they intend to go about solving them. Since the Eye on Economy is a column on economics and not on strategic policy, we'd better stick to the economic policies promised by these parties.

Start with the supposed achievements of the present government. Yashwant Sinha has gone to town crowing about his twin achievements of low inflation and swelling reserves. Neither, if looked at properly can be said to be anything more than a fortuitous statistical side product. As this column has argued earlier, our foreign currency reserves are more likely aresult of strangled demand than competent policy.

The current account deficit reflects the excess demand for savings over what we can provide from domestic resources. There is no evidence that our supply of savings has gone up substantially in this period. On the other hand we have seen a fair amount of recessionary pressures which tend to decrease the demand for savings. Given the same levels of inflows, much of these funds find their way into our reserves because of RBI's policy of sterilising inflows. So rather than a symptom of success, these reserves should be seen as a sign of our troubled times.

Inflation is another issue that even the triumphant Vajpayee found time to work into his speeches. Again things may not be all that they seem.

Remember onion prices last year? The high price of primary articles struck such a raw nerve that it led to the fall of a couple of BJP governments at the state level. Given the high base price of primary articles last year, it was always likely that a reversion tothe normal trend would be accompanied by a negative rate of price rise in these articles. This is precisely what seems to have happened. The recession in the manufactured goods segment also, meant that prices would stay low. So rather than a deliberate victory for public policy over prices, what might have actually happened is a correction of an earlier policy failure. We would not have been justified in blaming the BJP government alone for the rise in food prices last year. But by the same measure, they cannot claim the fall in inflation as a vindication of their policies.

The BJP now promises to ensure growth of between 7 to 8 per cent, as does the Congress. That, by now, should be seen as the emptiest of promises, if for nothing else, for the fact that there is nothing much a government can do to accelerate such growth than to remove the impediments to growth. There is no clear signal, from either side of any such initiatives.

The Congress does talk of removing impediments to generate a crore jobsevery year. But you would have to be an incurable optimist to expect this to mean that the Congress does actually intend to make changes in our exit policy. A pity really, because this is the kind of policy that might have made a definite and permanent difference to our incomes growth.

And both are very eager to promote the cause of the Indian Multinational. I am not quite sure how any government can promise to do this. Both seem to share a distaste for selling the idea of privatisation to the public. As we have argued in these columns before, it is essential that the idea of reform is sold to the general public. One way of doing would have been to promote a wider participation in our capital markets. If either side had been bold enough to promote privatisation as a way of distributing the means of production among a wider public, we might have actually gone someplace with this. Instead both treat it as an accounting necessity, an approach that is hardly likely to create a favourable impression in the mindsof the many.

Both talk of bringing in FDI worth $10 billion annually. Again, this is just so much talk. If there was a politically easy way of attracting so much direct investments, you can be sure that the bureaucrats in the finance ministry would have already done it. The congress talks about bringing in a fiscal responsibility act that would peg the fiscal deficit below 4 per cent of the GDP. And here they are talking about the combined fiscal deficit of the union and state governments. It would be very surprising if this figure was at present substantially below 9 or 10 per cent of our GDP. To bring about such a change would mean drastic cuts in wasteful revenue expenditure, in subsidies and in interest payments. The National Democratic Alliance also promises more of the same. Much as Yashwant Sinha did last budget around.

The trouble is, they don't really bother to tell us how.

At the end of the day, both parties have our interests at heart, however they may perceive them. Our problems are oldand not unusual for a country in our circumstances. So it may not be quite fair to criticise them for not having anything new to say about their objectives. But we are being asked to choose our leaders based on what we think they can do for us. If our political parties don't tell us how they intend to solve our problems, how do we decide in favour of either?