Under the circumstances one would have expected Swamy to be a little realistic of his chances. But that is not the case. "It is a forgone conclusion that the first place is mine. DMK and CPM are fighting it out for the second and the third places," he told The Financial Express with characteristic gusto. He also claimed that people have resorted to `hero worshipping' him for his ability to bring down and put in place a government at the Centre.

The ground reality in Madurai is, however, very different. The constituency is witnessing one of the toughest electoral battles in Tamil Nadu between the AIADMK Frontcandidate P Mohan (CPM) and NDA candidate Pon Muthuramalingam (DMK). TMC candidate AGS Rambabu is also in the fray.

Sheer numbers favour Mohan. In the 1998 elections, he had garnered 1.11 lakh votes without any alliances riding the sympathy wave generated by the death of a CPM woman councillor. The Left Front has been traditionally strong in this segment and the tie-up with AIADMK makes it a formidable combination.

The DMK camp is definitely worried. The mere fact that the state chief minister M Karunanidhi spent one full day campaigning from street to street reveals the intensity of the contest and the importance DMK Front is attaching to this constituency. It is depending on stability and Vajpayee factor to pull ahead of its opponent.

Pon Muthuramalingam is, however, very confident. He says that NDA is the only front to have projected a prime minister. AB Vajpayee has proved that he is the best leader that India has got and only he can give the stable government, he added.

Cauvery water problem hasbeen solved and minorities have had no problems during the 13-month BJP government, he said. NDA constituents BJP and MDMK have a small presence in the area.

Periyar Dam issue (Tamil Nadu is demanding that the height of the dam situated in the TN-Kerala border be raised but Kerala is not willing to do so and is saying that the dam is not strong enough for that) is a thorn in the flesh for Mohan as CPM is the ruling party in Kerala.

He is finding it difficult to convince the people that he can get the Kerala government to agree to TN request. It could cost him some votes in the farming community.

Subramanian Swamy fought the elections alone in 1996 and secured 1.44 lakh votes. But that was on the basis of his single handed anti-Jayalalitha campaign. He does have some support in rural areas but whether it will translate into votes remains to be seen.

TMC candidate Ram Babu is expected to get a fair share of Saurashtrian votes (all parties are eyeing this vote bank) which is estimated to be 85,000 strongin the constituency plus dalit votes. He and Swamy are expected to slug it out for the third and fourth places.