This can attributed to two factors. Firstly, it could be a case of `once bitten twice shy'. Having predicted a clean sweep for the DMK-TMC combine in the 1998 elections, they had to eat their words when AIADMK front swept the polls, riding piggyback on the fallout of Coimbatore serial blasts.

Secondly, there are many imponderables which could tilt the scale in favour of either of combine, NDA and AIADMK, as most constituencies are witnessing tough battles, especially in the southern parts of the state. Following are some of the issues that could play a crucial role.

Third Front: It is for the first time that a competitive Third Front has emerged in the state. Led by TMC, it has become a rallying point for Dalits. The front is expected to get a goodsupport but it is not clear whether it would be at the cost of AIADMK or DMK. It is also first time, TMC is fighting elections without the support of DMK. The quantum of support it will get apart from the Dalit segment is unclear. The front is not expected to win any seats but could impact the outcome of the result in constituencies such as Tenkasi, Sivakasi, Periakulam, Ramanathapuram and Dindigul.

Vajpayee factor: It is true that Vajpayee, after Indira Gandhi, has become our tallest leader and Kargil has really made him a hero here.It remains to be seen if people would vote for him cutting across party affiliation.

Stability: People of Tamil Nadu are well known for the fact that they have always preferred a stable government at the Centre. NDA is in fact banking on the factor as it is the only front to have projected a prime ministerial candidate. People of the state have always given a decisive mandate and will 1999 be any different?

Minorities: Minorities have traditionallyvoted for DMK. But with DMK going with BJP, it is not clear whether they will remain with DMK or move away from it. In case they move away from DMK, the amount of impact on the party would depend on who they vote for, whether AIADMK-front or third front.

Voting percentage: A cross-section of the people met by this correspondent in many constituencies exhibited a high degree of frustration about frequent elections. Many said that they have not made up their mind whether to vote or not. If they turn-up in large numbers to vote, NDA will benefit as there is no significant anti-establishment wave. Moreover, a section of minorities, especially those belonging DMK, may not vote as DMk has tied-up with BJP. Traditional DMK partymen can never think of voting for AIADMK. Some congressmen too may not cast their vote as they are upset over the illtreatment of their leader Sonia Gandhi by J Jayalalitha. The 1998 elections saw the state polling one of lowest votes since independence.