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Tuesday, September 7, 1999

Can't afford rice? Eat chicken! 

Manas Chakravarty  
September 6: Salt, foodgrains and medicines have become increasingly expensive while airconditioners, refrigerators, soft drinks and chocolates have shown either negative or modest price rises. The last five years have seen inflation come down dramatically, from 10.9 per cent in 1994-95 to the current rate of a little over 1 per cent. But comparing the rise in prices of commodities over a five year period--July 1994 to June 1999--throws up some interesting results.

For example, the price of cereals, which includes rice, wheat, jowar, bajra, maize, etc, rose by 49.1 per cent over the five-year period. The price of rice increased by 46.9 per cent, while that of wheat went up by 45.7 per cent. Contrast the decline in the price of cream and snow, which went down by 22.2 per cent over the period, or airconditioners, the price of which fell by 12.5 per cent.

The table below gives the rise in prices of products over the period. The data has been culled from the CMIE's reporting of commodity-wise figures for theWholesale Price Index. The left side of the table groups those items together where the price rise was more than 30 per cent, while those which showed a lower than 30 per cent rise are on the right side of the table.

The price of food has gone up dramatically, compared to the modest rise in the prices of most manufactured products. The price of salt has increased by a whopping 120 per cent. Strangely enough, in spite of all the hype about competition bringing down the price of medicines, the WPI data shows that the price rise for the "drugs and medicines" category has been a very high 65.9 per cent. Grain mills products, such as maida, sooji and atta, increased by over 50 per cent.

Airconditioners, wristwatches, TV sets, wines and spirits, and chicken prices showed a lower than double digit rise in prices during the period. Compared to the huge increase in cereal prices, the prices of fruits and vegetables went up only modestly, inspite of last year's spike in potato and onion prices.

The data clearlyindicates that the poor have been affected the most by inflation. Even when overall inflation is at a record low, cereal prices, as on June this year, show a 17.21 per cent rise year-on-year (rice--15.32 per cent; wheat--15.03) while pulses show a rise of 12.36 per cent. In contrast, chicken prices have increased by only 0.15 per cent over the year. Coarse grains, such as bajra and maize, consumed by the poorest, have seen their prices rising by over 40 per cent this year. Drugs and medicine prices have risen by 29.6 per cent (June on June). Many of the items consumed by the upper classes, like airconditioners, chicken and TV sets have showed a negligible rise over the five-year period. The poor are also affected because they spend much larger proportions of their income on food compared to the rich.

The prices of manufactures have been kept in check because of competition, especially competition from imports. Agriculture, however, has been protected from imports, and support prices have been raised everyyear. The result has been a shift in the terms of trade in favour of agriculture. But while that has helped farmers with marketable surpluses, the poorest have been badly hurt.

Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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