The Congress, along with its allies, is expected to win 145 seats, while others are likely to get 38 seats. In the elections held so far in 418 seats, the BJP and its allies are likely to get 22 seats more than they got in the last elections, whereas the Congress is expected to gain eight seats. The only losers are the others.

The DRS surveyed 28,000 voters in 124 constituencies. In the fourth phase, votes were cast in 74 constituencies. The BJP is projected to win 44 of them, while the Congress is expected to get 19 and the others 11. A polarisation in the polity seems to be emerging, as the two major fronts are gaining strength not only in terms of seats but alsoin attracting votes. According to the exit poll, the NDA is expected to get 43 per cent votes, which is 4 per cent more than what it got in 1998.

The Congress, with 36 per cent, is likely to gain 4 per cent. And both are gaining at the expense of the others.

If the predictions hold, as of now, the National Democratic Alliance is 38 seats short of a simple majority in the Lok Sabha.

Of the 125 constituencies in which the electorate will exercise its franchise on October 3, the NDA had won in 45 in 1998. If the ruling alliance even retains these 45 seats, it will come back to power, psephologist GVL Narasimhan Rao of the DRS said in the Doordarshan programme. He said the NDA had gained in the Congress strongholds.

Meanwhile, four persons were killed in Bihar in the fourth round of polling for 13th Lok Sabha on Saturday which recorded an estimated 51 per cent of 80 million voters exercising their franchise in 74 constituencies spread over nine states. Though there were reports of poll malpractices fromalmost all the constituencies in the most trouble-prone Bihar and a minister was also detained, yet as compared to the third phase when 38 lives were lost in the state, the polling was peaceful on Saturday. Chief Election Commissioner MS Gill told newspersons here at the conclusion of polling that it was a "very satisfactory day".

Percentage-wise, he said that Bihar and Orissa registered 55 per cent voter turnout, followed by Manipur 53, Meghalaya and Himachal Pradesh 52, Uttar Pradesh 50, Mizoram and Madhya Pradesh 45 and Nagaland 38 per cent. Gill said the day passed off by and large peacefully with an estimated 51 per cent voter turnout. He said that the commission's efforts to check poll violence in Bihar and elsewhere had paid off.

While four persons were killed in Bihar, no other major untoward incident had been reported from any of the other eight others states which went to the polls, Gill said. Addressing a joint news conference with Election Commissioners GVG Krishnamurty and JM Lyngdoh, Gillsaid "in a difficult set of polling states, this is a satisfactory position. Our concerted efforts alongwith the Union home ministry and the states concerned to check poll violence, specially in Bihar, have paid off."

Gill said four people were killed in police firing in Bihar -- two in Nalanda, one in Barh and one in Siwan -- and eight were injured. About 750 people, including state cooperative minister Shyam Bihari Prasad, were arrested for attempting to disrupt polling. Gill said repoll was expected to be ordered in 10 polling booths in Muzaffarnagar in UP where voting was affected by some incidents, in which an assistant sub-inspector had to be suspended.