Of course, there is no ruling at all yet in the trial. District Judge Thomas Penfield Jackson is now considering what facts were proved during 76 days of testimony and will issue his "findings of fact" sometime in the coming weeks.

After that, the judge will hear further arguments before reaching conclusions of law. Most observers believe the judge will find against Microsoft Corp., opening the question of what remedies he would apply.

The Justice Department and 19 states charge that Microsoft has used monopoly power in personal computer operating systems to illegally muscle other companies, in order to preserve and extend its monopoly. Microsoft says it holds no monopoly.

Should the judge impose a remedy, legal scholars and economists say he could choose either to break up the company or toregulate it.

Analysts say they would need to see the details before making a judgment, but they know they do not like the idea of major regulation.

"Significant regulation makes investors get real nervous real quick," said Erik Olbeter, senior Internet analyst for the Schwab Capital Markets and Trading Group in Washington.

He said a continuing overview of Microsoft could make the markets "really skittish."

A judge or other regulator could throw a monkey wrench into the kinds of speedy changes the company needs to make in an industry where three-month periods of time are sometimes referred to as "Internet years," the analysts say.

Olbeter said investors do not trust the government to run things, a view that resonated with Steve Shepich of Olde Discount in Detroit.

"The government can't even run itself, let alone one of the most robust industries we've had in this country," said Shepich, adding: "I don't think the government wants to do it."

Shepich said while a mild regulatory regimen might work,heavy regulation "would be bad for the industry."

On the other hand, Olbeter said, "Markets will be able to figure out very quickly the value of a divestiture."

Shepich said that investors could even be advantaged by a Microsoft break-up. "If you did split it up by product line, when all is said and done, investors could even be better off, because it would free up some of the value they have in the company," Shepich said.

He said if the company's products were licensed to all comers, that would be a different matter: "It would be bad for investors."

Gates's stake in Microsoft falls to $71 billion

Microsoft Corp. Chairman Bill Gates' stake in Microsoft has fallen to $71 billion from $87.5 billion this year, after he donated billions of dollars in stock to his charitable foundation, documents filed on Tuesday showed. Gates, 43, has reduced his holdings to about 787 million shares, or 15.3 percent of the world's biggest computer software company, according to the company's latest proxystatement. That's down from a split-adjusted one billion shares, or 19.8 percent, in January, the last time the company disclosed figures.