The estimates are based on NDA's national agenda. Though foodgrains have reached a record production of 203 million tonnes in 1998-99, there are little chances of doubling production in the near future given the constraints in expanding the net sown area.

Ministry sources stated that doubling food production has become a necessity with people in urban areas and elite class preferring more of food items than cereals. They also feel that further change in diet pattern is also expected in the near future in many more parts of the country.

Therefore efforts to double total food production should be taken up in right earnest to cope with the rising population which will cross the billion-mark by 2007.

According to the official definition of `food' it has come to include not only food grainslike rice, wheat, coarse cereals and pulses but also crops like oilseeds, sugarcane whose extracts are used as food, fruits, vegetables, milk, eggs, meat and fish.

The document prepared by the ministry stated that its 10-year prospective plan is in response to the warning given by the World Watch Institute that by year 2030 India may have to import over 45 million tonnes of foodgrains to balance food needs.

This project figure of imports is four times more than highest import of 10 million tonnes in 1966. The estimated target of doubling food production will, therefore, take care of domestic needs and exports, feels government.

The ministry also noted that despite the impressive growth in foodgrain production, the per capita net availability of foodgrains gives a dismal picture. In 1951 it was 144.1 kg, in 1961 and in 1971 it was 171.1 kg and then it declined to 166 kg in 1981. In 1991 the per capita net availability of foodgrains, however, rose to 186.2 kg but it declined to 175 kg in 1998.

Ministryhas estimated that while the net sown area in the country is likely to remain unchanged at 142 million hectares, the gross cropped area can be increased to 203 million hectares in 2001-02 and to 13 million hectares in 2006-07 from the existing level of 191 million hectares.

Similarly, the cropping intensity can be increased to 143 per cent in 2001-02 and to 150 per cent in 2006-07 from the existing 134 per cent. The gross irrigated area in the country can be increased to 89 million hectares in 2001-02 and to 106 million hectares in 2006-07 from the existing 76 million hectares.

The document suggested that a fresh identification of zones has to be taken up on basis of potentiality and input use pattern. High productivity and high input consumption under which 51 districts in 13 states have been identified.

Low productivity and high potential zone for improvement of irrigation and fertiliser consumption under which 139 districts in 12 states have been identified and the third zone would be whereproductivity is low and the fertiliser consumption is also low due to non-availability of irrigation under which 22 districts in seven states have been identified.

Special production programmes for each zone will be worked out keeping in view the area specific needs of the zones. States will be given greater responsibility with larger flexibility and freedom to formulate programmes suiting local requirements.

A scheme of wheat production in central plateau region and hill areas is likely to be introduced in the Ninth Plan. For northeastern states, a composite crop development programme is under consideration.

Omprakash Chautala's plan

The BJP's ally Indian National Lok Dal of Omprakash Chautala is likely to strike a hard bargain for cabinet berths in agriculture, food and fertiliser ministries, according to political sources.

The former Union minister of state for agriculture, Sompal and also minister for food and fertilisers, Surjit Singh Barnala were defeated in the polls. This has madeeasier for the National Lok Dal to demand these ministries.

But Chautala has already expressed that he would not like any further hike in urea prices. He may not also agree to certain points expressed in the new draft agriculture policy and Hanumanthrao Committee proposal pertaining to decontrol of fertiliser prices.