Global food supplies were plentiful and grain prices were at historic lows as a UN population clock ticked off the world's six billionth human among the 3,70,000 babies born on Tuesday, many of them destined for a future of poverty and illiteracy. The world's population has doubled since 1960 and increased by one billion people in the past 12 years. But the rate, albeit distressing, is expected to slow by 2050 to perhaps 8.9 billion people, the UN demographers say.

Potential to boost crop yields

Food industry experts said the world had the technological know-how to produce enough food to keep pace with the birth rate, and cast doubt on Malthusian prophecy that the world's population would eventually outstrip its resources. They said developing countries had the potential to boost crop yields by usingconventional technology.

"If you look at the yields of crops in developing countries and compare them with the average of developed countries, there is still a huge way to go with conventional technology," said secretary general of the Paris-based International Federation of Agricultural Producers David King.

Bill DeMaria at the International Grains Council in London said, "I think there is sufficient productive capacity to meet world demand for food."

He cited the potential of a poor, wheat-growing country like Kazakhstan, for example, which had an average yield of 0.6 tonnes per hectare in the 1994-98 period, against 5.6 tonnes per hectare in the richer European Union. As formerly Communist eastern European and CIS countries implemented free-market policies, farmers would have greater incentives to boost productivity, he said.

King said agricultural productivity had been rising steadily in the EU in recent years and the trend was set to continue. Food industry officials, noting that the biggestpopulation growth in the coming years would be in Africa and Asia, said economic development and political stability were key to a country's ability to supply its own food needs. But they forecast increasing flows of food aid from richer nations to the world's poorest countries.

King said trade barriers must be eliminated against commodity-based exports of poor nations to help them raise revenues to pay for essential food imports. DeMaria said he was optimistic about the capacity of China, which has 22 per cent of the world's population and only seven per cent of its arable land, to feed itself.

When the People's Republic of China recently celebrated its 50th anniversary, its leaders, after four years of bumper crops, proudly proclaimed China can now feed itself. "As China's economy develops, it will be more able to afford any imports it may need," DeMaria said.

Debate on genetically modified food

Food industry officials said that the debate in Europe and Japan over the environmental and healthimpact of genetically modified (GM) foods was a luxury of rich countries, which did not worry about their ability to feed themselves. They said GM technology would benefit poor countries' farmers by raising resistance to pests, disease and drought as global warming and urbanisation increased pressure on agricultural land and reduced water supplies for cultivation. "The world will have to feed more people with less land and less water," King said.