New York, Dec 2: Blink and you might have missed the brief Y2K gold rush,which fizzled out weeks before any mayhem might arise from programmingglitches in the world's computers, analysts said.Almost none of gold's advance from near 20-year lows in September andOctober was attributed to safe-haven hoarding of coins and bars beforeJanuary 1, analysts said.
And there has been no speculation that gold would automatically benefit ifout-of-date computers wreaked midnight havoc by misreading the last twodigits in the year 2000 as 1900, they added.
``Some of the buying was Y2K-related but I don't think it was a significantamount to substantially impact prices,'' said director of CommoditiesResearch at Salomon Smith Barney, David Rinehimer. ``If anything it faded aswe got close to the end of the year.''
The ambivalent attitude toward gold in private and central bank portfoliosis a millennial reminder that the metal has lost its age-old status as aninvestment that protects personal wealth and insures national currencies inuncertain times. Far from serving as shelter against an analogue apocalypse,gold spent much of 1999 shunned by investors who feared disposal plans bythe the Bank of England, the International Monetary Fund and the SwissNational Bank meant that the metal was no longer seen as an important partof monetary reserves.
Sentiment strengthened in September after Britain's second bimonthly auctionof reserve bullion met surprisingly robust demand, kicking off the rallythat hit a two-year high at $338 an ounce two weeks later, after Europeancentral banks pledged to curtail their market activities for five years.
But on Monday the third sale of gold under Britain's programme to reduce itsstockpile by 415 tonnes to 300 tonnes was a disappointment. Investors didnot jump at the opportunity to buy metal before year-end at a big discountfrom the highs.
``One thing (the auction) shows is gold is clearly not attracting any sortof Y2K interest,'' said director of futures research at Merrill Lynch,William O'Neill. Metals research firm CPM Group said in its 1999 Gold Surveythat Y2K buying occurred in the first four months of the year, beforetapering off in the second and third quarters.
According to CPM, sales of the US Eagle gold coin are on track to set recordsales volumes in 1999, though no more than one-fifth of these wereattributable to investor Y2K buying.
Golden Eagle sales reached 1.71 million ounces in the first three quarters,compared to 1.84 million in the whole of 1998. FideliTrade Inc, a Delawarebullion investment firm, said Eagles were priced at a big premium overCanadian and Australian gold coins because even some sophisticated investorsthought US dollar-denominated coins would be handier in any disruption ofthe economy or financial system on January 1.
``If conditions get so bad that cash isn't available for a long term, peoplethink they are going to go to the drug store or grocery store and buy theirgoods using bullion coins,'' FideliTrade managing director Michael Clarksaid.
``The one ounce coin has a $50 face value and goes for over $300. So you aregoing to buy a $300 item today with the expectation that, first of all, it'sgoing to be negotiable, and secondly, that you are going to negotiate it for$50,''he said.
``How logical is that? '' Some investors and dealers took positions infutures and options to hedge potential Y2K risk, but are unwinding thosestructures, fairly confident that systems at US financial firms, utilitiesand government agencies are ready for the date change in four weeks.
Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.