On Friday, the BSE Sensex closed at 5413 points. During the week's trading,the index gained a net of 416 points over the close of the previous week.The index saw a huge up move during the week as the market greeted the NewYear with a bang.It was a tumultuous week indeed. The index moved up and down like crazy asvolumes and volatility hit record highs. For Indian markets, this was a bigmove indeed and for once, in the rat race of the global markets, India wasthe official winner. After a long time, the Indian market has boomed.
The market has seen a big upmove, but after a big upmove, the fall has beenequally drastic at least in some stocks. This week, the stocks that took abig beating were the stocks in the software sector and stocks in the mediasector. While these stocks went into a severe correction, the pivotals haveseen a big move on the upside. There is again a fancy for stocks like Tisco,Telco and Reliance.
The market has again started to pay attention to these stocks. Last week, wewere singularly bullish on the market and this week's price action hasproved our point. The index opened the week with a huge gap on the upsideand the market continued to move higher. The rally in the market wasaccompanied by a huge increase in volumes.
One noticeable factor was the huge gap with which the market had opened. Thestrength with which the index rallied would have given traders little chanceto capitalise on the market unless someone was willing to hold positionsovernight.
The index opened the week with a gap. This is significant, as the market hasgapped out of a strong resistance level of 5152 points, the high that themarket had made on October 11, 1999. Breakouts accompanied by gaps are verysignificant as they show a tendency to work relatively well and they aremore reliable.
The movement of the index was largely sideways after the huge upswing thatwas seen during Monday's trading. The index has gone in a huge trading rangeof 5,533 points on the upside to 5,184 points on the downside. In such ahuge trading range, it is very difficult to predict what the market will donext.
The market is expected to be very selective and proper stock selection andkey timing are going to be crucial in deciding what a trader's profitabilitywill be.
Asian Paints
The price of this stock has been attracting good volumes during the week.The price action on the weekly charts shows appearance of a bullishcandlestick pattern called as the 'morning doji star'. The price of thestock is likely to rally to around Rs 450 in the medium term. One may buythe stock with a stop loss below Rs 360.
Crompton Greaves
The price action of this stock is very similar to what is seen in AsianPaints. Volumes have seen a bit of increase, a sign of renewed interest inthe stock. The price is just below the resistance of Rs 59.50 and once thislevel is broken, the price may see a rally to around Rs 85. One may buy thisstock at on breakout with a stop loss below Rs 52.
Global Tele-systems
The price action in this stock shows that it is attracting distribution overthe past two weeks. The price may show a steady decline as it is showingsigns of deterioration. One may consider booking profits in this stock atcurrent levels for the time being as it could see a decline. The stock maybe bought again at an opportune time.
Tisco
The price will register a major breakout once it rallies above Rs 176.Traders may consider buying this stock at current levels for a decentappreciation in price. Keep a stop loss below Rs 160.
Himachal Futuristic
Sell short. Price may see a vertical drop in price if it breaks below Rs730. One may sell short on break below Rs 730, for a down target of Rs 625.Keep a stop loss above Rs 798.
(The author can be contacted at shahmani1@yahoo.com)
Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.