The study, making a shift from the earlier practice of taking into consideration only the potentials of India's major ports and their hinterlands, has looked into the possibilites held out by minor ports operated by the state governments. According to the traffic projections, the major and minor ports are expected to contribute equally to the marine traffic flow.

However, says the latest volume of `Indian Ports' from Indian Ports' Association, "years ahead only will confirm whether their forecasts are going to be realised or not, since many state governments have not geared fast enough to develop the ports". Gujarat has been cited by the quarterly as the only state to have formulated a naval port policy and is moving ahead in privatising the port facilities.

Containerised cargo traffic in the country had exceeded the Eighth Plan target of 14 million tonnes to touch 15.43 million tonnes, Indian Ports said and added that this 60 per cent growth over the five-year period displays a buoyancy that will continue. The Ninth Plan projection is 15 per cent compounded growth at 38.7 million tonnes by 2001-2002. Against this, the achieved traffic was 24 million tonnes during the last financial year.

The current forecasts are made under the Perspective Planning for Transport Development (PPTD) under the Planning Commission's broad-based committees for different modes of transport. PPTD had projected a containerised cargo volume of 24 million tonnes for 1994-95 and 37.28 million tonnes for 1998-99. However, the actual achievement for 1994-95 was 15.13 million tonnes and 23 million tonnes for 1998-99, the quarterly points out.

Global container throughput has increased from 6.3 million TEUs in 1970 to 1958.5 million TEUs in 1997. The share of developing countries in containerised cargo traffic has been increasing spectacularly over the last three decades. By 2000 it is expected to rise to 45 per cent from the level of 10 per cent in 1975.