You think I must be crazy - not just a case of being just a contrarian. Well, let me take solace that even Warrent Buffet too cannot make any sense of what is happening in the technical stocks scenario.

You ask what is wrong with Infosys rising once again, I hear. Is it not slated to touch Rs 40,000 sooner than later, as I hear in the crowds that mill around trading terminals in the broker's office. Well, Infy was only an illustrative piece. In fact, more than a dozen stocks are mimicking the style. The market took a scare on the wobbling Wednesday, when the tech balloon threatened to deflate at Nasdaq. But punters are back at the game all over, once again here, once the US tremors settled down.

Well, you cannot blame the punters really, can you? Millions of people are queuing upto write cheques to infotech sector funds via the mutual route. The malaise, so to say, has spread like a cancer in an organised manner. So, it is the most sensible thing to go long, before MFs come with their shopping carts.

I do not think all this is normal business, despite the mass action. It is quite easy for a whole nation to get into hysteria. If it can happen in Nazi Germany, why not in stock markets here?

The only thing that I cannot figure out right now is whether the chaps who keep investing in the infotech stocks, even when they reach their frenzied peaks are under a hysteria; or are they crazy; or are they simply fooling themselves. Worst still, I suspect they are enjoying their self-deception.

Research work in a US University recently suggests that incompetent people have no inkling whatsoever that they are doing the most stupid thing. I am slightly exaggerating to drive the point home. On the contrary, they tend to believe that they are amongst the top intelligent segment. The problemstarts when you think you know best. And in the context of the Indian stock markets, investors have come to believe that they know best while investing in software stocks unmindful of price levels.

Realisation did dawn when Infy refused to move above Rs 16000 and crashed. But until a rude shock hits you, you would continue to believe that your actions are indeed right. It happened in Harshad Mehta's time and it is happening now.

But such incompetence is not restricted to those who trade at Dalal Street or at the millions of terminals. If you still cannot comprehend the gravity of the malaise, consider this. Leeson kept trading in copper and his employers fooled themselves that what he was doing was right. The incompetence arising out of misplaced self assurance led to the wiping out of his employer.

Leeson is not alone. The IMF fooled itself that its prescriptions were right, when it had to rescue countries in south east Asia. Now, they have come to acknowledge the wrong done - they did bring aboutavoidable damage and hardships to the economies. Let us move closer home. Yaswant Sinha is talking about zero-budgeting and cutting the costs of the establishment. Well, these talks seem to be for the gallery, and I am not sure that even he is convinced that these things will come about.

On the other hand, everyone knows that there is no way this country can sustain the cost of the bureaucracy. Yet, we will do nothing to bring it down. On the contrary, we will not even prevent it from bloating further. Or take the state power corporations. They will continue to give power freely or at a cost much lower than the cost of generation.

These are blatant examples of incompetence. Not only do the politicians know it, but even the public is aware of it. Yet we are too incompetent to change these trends. We live in a world where incompetence is not a rare phenomenon. The tragedy is, it is most common. But incompetence will extract its price. Yet, people make money on softy stocks, don't they, you ask. I suggestthat rather you turn the question to yourself.

Do you think you could make money in this game? If you had logged into the recent peak, you would know what I am talking about. Yes, it is not unlikely that many people took a hit. Yes of course, some made money. Who are these, who went laughing to the banks. They are the shrewd operators, who had honed their skills in the market for years. They can not only read the pulse of the market at any moment, but can predict what the pulse would be the next day. It is such sharks that you are pitted against. And if you have been watching the Natural Geographic channel, you would know how easily sharks feed on the small fry. Ask yourself if you are not becoming a willing prey?

The US study does mention that it is the incompetence of people which hinders them from recognising their own weakness. In fact, the increasing tendency of day traders in the US persisting in this activity despite constantly losing out is a phenomenon which falls in this category. And, it hasnot bothered Allan Greenspan. So, do wake up. The temptation to follow the crowd is great.

But do not kick yourself into believing that that is the most intelligent thing to do. Especially if it is your hard earned money. It is quite a different matter, if you are playing with money, which you have marked for risking away, come what may.