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Short-term view is weak 

Deepak Singh Tanwar  
MARCH 3: Thanks to a sharp dip in index-based counters like HLL, Reliance,ITC, Ranbaxy, L&T, SBI, HPCL and Hindalco, the BSE Sensex lost 245 pointslast week.

The fall could have been nearly 400 points had Infosys not provided a majorboost. The stock has shown an appreciation of 25 per cent.

Being the heaviest of the lot, this itself has provided a push of more than200 points.

As such, if one were to remove the Infosys impact, the fall is of nearly 400points.

With the latest fall, the short-term position of the market has weakened.The next major base for the Sensex is at around 5200 points.

It should take some support around these levels. In any case, pivotals mayshow a correction to its latest fall, and this might provide some relief tothe Sensex.

Individually, Infosys is still strong, and yet to show signs of weakness. Asfor HLL, major support lies at Rs 2300. Till that level, the fall maycontinue, although the pace may slow down.

ITC has broken all short-term supports, and the outlook remains negative.Long positions should be avoided at the current levels.

Reliance has also broken its medium-term supports and is heading southward.Even if a rally occurs, the chances of sustaining that run would bedifficult. Same is the case with Ranbaxy, L&T, Bhel, and HPCL. As for SBI,it has broken an important base of Rs 220, which is an extremely bearishsignal for its technical health.

The level of Rs 220 now acts as a resistance. On the downside, it has asupport at Rs 200. The suppport thereafter exists at Rs 150. NIIT has alsobroken an important base, besides forming a lower top. The stock is in adowntrend, and is likely to remain weak. Long position should be avoided,unless the level of Rs 2600 is crossed.

As for MTNL, the stock has a good base around Rs 278, and unless this levelis broken, medium-term players need not worry. On the upper side, above Rs330, the counter would be attractive for long positions.

The position of other index-based counters is also far from impressive. ACC,Tisco, Hindalco, Bajaj Auto have broken their medium-term support, andwhatever rally comes, it will be in the form of a technical correction ofits previous fall, and would be difficult to sustain.

Among the software sector, outlook for Satyam Computers, Global Tele,Himachal Futuristic, and DSQ Software appears positive.

Copyright © 2000 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.

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