London, April 5: Western stock market volatility has increased global financial risk, yet some investors still believe emerging markets may offer a relative safe haven as US assets duck and weave, fund managers said on Wednesday.Strong fundamentals, rising growth and good value in both emerging market stocks and bonds should assert themselves over the long term - although good picking remains essential and short-term volatility is likely to be high.
"One can't account for market sentiment, but fundamentals remain very good," Gartmore Global Emerging Markets Fund manager Christopher Palmer said.
A stiff US stock market correction may even be just what the doctor ordered, as it decreases the chance of a sudden and unexpected interest rate tightening by the US Federal Reserve. That should be a boon for emerging bonds especially, which are dominated by Latin American debt.
"In that sense the Nasdaq's recent fall has been quite healthy," said Jerome Booth, head of research at Ashmore Investment.
Emerging bond prices have so far weathered well the tech-driven Nasdaq's 20 percent drop from its year high in March. Yield spreads over US treasuries have widened some 80 basis points over the past month to 830 bp, but in large part that has been due to US bond yields forced lower by safe haven fund flows, rather than lower emerging bond prices.
"What is remarkable is how well-insulated emerging debt has been from the Nasdaq. In part, that is because we have not got all the footloose market froth, it went to the Nasdaq instead," Booth added.
Emerging stocks globally are also down just seven percent from their year high, according to the International Finance Corp Composite Index, although that masks large differences across regions and sectors.
Taiwan -- traditionally seen as a high-tech emerging market-- has moved ahead some 17 percent since March 20 while the Nasdaq has plunged. Indian stocks, driven by software companies, are meanwhile off some 30 percent since mid-February's peak.
"A lot of the sell-off we're seeing in tech companies is due to investors trying to grappple with valuations based on earnings very far out in the future," Gartmore's Palmer said.
Copyright © 2000 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.