Statistics available for the 12 months spanning April 1999 and March this year, show that consumption of 14 petroleum products, including petrol, diesel, cooking gas, fuel oils, bitumen, naphtha and lubes slowed down to 5.9 per cent from a growth of 7.4 per cent in 1998-99. The slower growth in oil consumption is followed by a stabilisation of international oil prices.

North Sea Brent crude prices stabilised at $25.98 a barrel in April from $27.26 a barrel in March and $27.89 a barrel in February. West Asian crude prices also slid to roughly $22.50 a barrel in April from $25.50 a barrel in March and $25 a barrel in February. The downtrend in prices comes in a year, in which India's crude oil imports are expected to jump 46 per cent to more than 85 million tonnes, to sustain a refining capacity of 112 million tonnes.

The home production of crude is not expected to be more than last year's output of 32 million tonnes. The close to 40 per cent increase in petroleum refining capacity will mean a tapering off of petro-product imports. The oil bill (which Union petroleum minister Ram Naik apprehends could be as high as Rs 72,000 crore this year) will mostly be made up of crude oil.

Should the promised supplies from the Opec (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries) continue this year, the oil import bill could be closer to Naik's other estimate (at spot prices of $22 a barrel) of Rs 60,000 crore. The oil bill last year was Rs 57,000 crore, when crude oil imports had jumped 48 per cent to 58 million tonne from 39 million tonne in 1998-99.

The staggering of the galloping growth in oil consumption, to roughly six per cent from 7.4 per cent in 1998-99, augurs well for the oil import bill. Oil consumption has bounced over the years and why not, for Indians are among the lowest per capita consumers of energy.

The demand for oil jumped 9.6 per cent in 1994-95 and peaked at 10.7 per cent the following year. In 1996-97 consumption of petro-products grew at a more modest pace of 6 per cent, increasing to 6.5 per cent in 1997-98 and to 7.4 per cent in the 1998-99 fiscal, the year of a nadir in oil prices.

The spurt in crude prices since, seems to have brought on the conservation fever once again, staggering the growth in oil consumption to a six-year low. Diesel prices went up in October 1999 and diesel sales dropped marginally in January. Petro-products sales took a particular beating after cooking gas and kerosene prices also went up in March. Oil industry sales were growing at a healthy 7.2 per cent till January, but the growth rate slowed down thereafter. Something happened to the domestic demand for fuels, feedstock, greases and gas after that and at the final count in end-March the total consumption of petro-products seems to have been much lower.

The use of transportation fuels (like petrol and diesel) have trotted over the years and the pace of growth continued (if not at a sprinting pace) after the automobile majors of the world discovered the Indian market around 1995. The advent of nine new passenger cars at home (with brand names like Daewoo Matiz, Hyundai Santro, Opel Astra and Ford Ikon) sustained a growth ranging between 4.6 per cent and 6.3 per cent in the consumption of motor spirit and 8.6 per cent to 2.3 per cent for diesel.

Between April 1999 and January this year the petrol sales of oil companies at home shot up by 8.5 per cent and diesel sales by 6.4 per cent.

Incidentally, sales of passenger cars during April 1999 and March-end this year catapulted to 6.39 lakh from roughly four lakh in the to previous years.

The population of electric pumpsets and tubewells, which are the key diesel guzzlers in the farm sector, dropped in 1999 (to 122 lakh) from the year before (when it was 118 lakh.) Indians can afford to turn oil guzzlers, because the per capita energy consumption within the country is among the lowest in the world. Compared to the world average of 1.5 million tonnes of oil equivalent (MTOE) a year, the per capita energy consumption in India is 0.3 million tonnes of oil equivalent. he world average for oil and gas consumption is 927 kg of oil equivalent per capita. In India the per capita consumption of hydrocarbons (read oil and gas) is only 113 kg of oil equivalent.

A growing demand for petro-fuels is inevitable, irrespective of how fast the GDP grows. Sheer population power would add to the thirst for more and more of oil and gas.