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Sensex may find support at 4284 points 

K Seshadri  
MAY 2: The Sensex broke down on Tuesday. It lost a hefty 286 points to close at 4372. The seeds for this breakdown had been sown on last Friday.

On that the index had closed at 4658, lower than the previous close of 4680. On that day the index had opened at 4768 higher than the previous day's opening of 4762. But the negative impact was there to see in terms of not only lower closing, but the high for the day. Friday's high at 4768 failed to surpass the 4800 intra day high level of Thursday. In other words the weakness was perceptible. The only question that was left was whether a Monday opening coupled with the modest recovery at Nasdaq could have come to rescue. But the swift fall to 4598 within the first half an hour signalled the breakdown.

The saving grace is 4284 the low of April 25 is yet to be tested. This can provide a support. Last week I had written about the support at the 4300 level. The index has indeed a good chance to do that.

And what you need to remember is that if it bounces off from here, it would be doing so for the second time. This time it could bounce at 4322 level. The real trouble arises only if the 4300 level support breakds down seriously. Taking the fundamental scenario behind the market, I feel the chances of that kind of breakdown are not all that great. And again you should try and not get scared right now. You need to look for market support and later gradual rise. So the proximity to 4322 level, you should keep yourself on the look out for buying to begin from foreign institutional investors and other big players. The reason why I do not expect a serious breakdown is also the pattern of technical formation.

The breakdwon formation has taken place at bottom levels, when the market was trying to recovery. It has not happened at a bull market peak. So do not write off the market as yet! After the first fifteen minutes of opening, there was a breakdown resulting in a eight per cent down in several counters.

Dr. Reddy, Novartis and Glaxo lost heavily. Hero Honda and IDBI were gainers. Pivotals like ITC and HLL lost sizeably pulling down the index.

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