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Market rally is yet to inspire confidence 

Deepak Singh Tanwar  
The market showed a recovery from a low of 3912.95 points on Monday. This recovery was led by Zee Telefilms, Infosys, ITC, HLL, and Satyam Computers. However, the rally is yet to bring confidence, and should be considered as of a corrective nature. For this reason, the long side of the market still appears unattractive, and offers an unattractive risk/reward ratio.

The first strong resistance for the Sensex exists in the range of 4600-4800 points. Unless it forms a higher bottom, or crosses its first resistance, the medium-term outlook for the market will remain negative.

As far as the position of individual stock is concerned, the heaviest of the lot, HLL appears weak. It has a strong resistance at around Rs 2450. On the downside, the stock has a minor support at Rs 2150. Fresh long position is avoidable at this juncture.

For Infosys, the immediate hurdle is at Rs 7200, and the next resistance is at Rs 8000. Long position should be avoided. Zee Telefilms is also in a corrective phase, and unlikely to sustain the rally for a long period.

Similar is the case with Satyam Computers. It has a strong resistance at Rs 3400, and on the lower side, it has a minor support at Rs 2510. The position of other index-based counters like Reliance, and ITC is comparatively better. ITC has showed a rally, and is close to its major resistance of Rs 590. The move will gather momentum above this level.

As for Reliance, the uptrend will gather momentum only above Rs 345. Immediate resistance for the stock exists at Rs 335. However, below Rs 310, the position would weaken, and sharp fall in not ruled out in that scenario.The position of other counters like MTNL, SBI, L&T, ACC, and Tisco is also far from impressive, and long positions should be avoided at this juncture.

The software stocks showed a rally from their low levels on Monday but failed to show a strong close. In fact, a large number of stocks have shown a weak close. DSQ Soft, Pentamedia, SSI, and Global Tele feature in this list. One should consider the ongoing uptrend as a corrective one, and for this reason, bottom-fishing approach should be avoided.

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