Thursday, June 8, 2000
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This week we focus on a complete analysis of the
rupee convertibility industry
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Reserve Bank, PSU banks intervene to rescue rupee 

Anurag Joshi  
Mumbai, June 7: The rupee on Wednesday came within a razor thin range ofbreaching its lowest level of 44.75, but recovered marginally on some verbalenquiries by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) coupled with dollar sales bylarge state-run banks.

The rupee ended at 44.725/735 per dollar, after touching the 44.75 mark fora brief while in late afternoon deals. The currency, however, reboundedafter importers and corporates turned hesitant to buy above these levels. Atthis point, the State Bank of India (SBI) sold dollars, which allowed therupee to gain some ground.

The currency, which opened at 44.665/675, unchanged from Tuesday's closinglevels. The rupee fell during the session on heavy dollar buying by players."The demand from importers and banks was genuine," a dealer with a foreignbank said.

The rupee had touched an all-time low of 44.75 on May 25, but rebounded to44.05 before the closing hours the same day after the central bank announcedmeasures to check speculation in the forex market.

Now, marketmen expect the rupee to breach the same level on Thursday totouch a new historic low. They said that dollar demand is likely to beheavy, with delayed repatriation of dollar proceeds by exporters adding tothe market's woes.

"The rupee may fall to 44.80/85. The RBI will keep a close watch on themarket on Thursday. This, however, will be the last stage of the rupee'sfall during May-June period. Thereafter, we would witness a spell ofsteadiness. However, the currency breaching the 45 mark in the next 1-2months cannot be ruled out," eMecklai senior vice president KN Dey said.

Dealers said the rupee's next move was crucial. If the 44.75 level proved tobe a tough psychological resistance for the dollar and encouraged exportsales and conversion of foreign inward remittances, there could be a smallrebound in the rupee, dealers said.

Premiums dipped on receiving interest from banks. The six-month premiumended at an annualised 2.9 per cent, off the morning's 2.97 per cent andcompared with Tuesday's close of 3.1 per cent.

Copyright © 2000 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.

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