While the level of outstanding is not much different from what the market saw during February 2000, when the Sensex had peaked at 6150, the difference this time around is there are hardly any exit routes for the operators.

Between January and February, domestic mutual funds offered the exit route to operators. New fund launches and existing technology funds had a kitty of over Rs 3,000 crore, which bailed out the operators in the market. To add to the frenzy was the net positive investment flows from foreign institutional investors, say brokers.

But this time around, mutual funds hardly have any funds flowing into them. With a net outstanding of around Rs 2,700 crore on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), the only exit option will come from the FIIs "who appear to be in no mood to step in to buy at the current levels".

Operators are taking a calculated risk ahead of the first-quarter results while building up positions. "I expect FIIs to buy only if the results are going to be exceptional. Everyone knows that information-technology companies can post at least a growth of 50-60 per cent. So it's only a big earnings surprise that will lure fresh funds into the market," says a broker.

Market sources said the real kickers for the market rally are expected from two leading index heavyweights-Reliance and Infosys. Together, they account for over 20 per cent of the Sensex weight. Results of both these companies are due in the third week of July and, Infosys, in particular, is expected to show a healthy growth in bottomline with market expectations ranging between 75 and 85 per cent.

Significantly, volumes on the National Stock Exchange's (NSE's) ALBM session on Wednesday also showed a rising trend. The turnover value is in excess of Rs 1,500 crore. Outstanding positions in some of the key speculative counters have increased sharply. In Himachal Futuristic, volumes were up from 13 lakh shares last week to 16 lakh shares on Wednesday, while in Global Tele-systems it shot up from 6.45 lakh shares to 14 lakh shares, according to NSE figures.

Similarly, volumes in Pentamedia Graphics went up from 6.45 lakh shares to about 7 lakh shares during the same period. Also, the cost of carrying such large positions will be a dear one for operators, as most of them have been averaging out and picking up more shares, the broker points out. "It's not just a correction, but a big correction is due if you look at the composition of the turnover table." Eight convergence sector plays account for about 80 per cent of the daily turnover on the bourses every day.

Besides, the long/short positions on the BSE and other major bourses suggest the market is tending to get lopsided with short sales, negligible in comparison to the long positions. With few short-sellers, the market could see a heavy fall if the bulls are trapped, say sources.

Thursday's badla session in Calcutta could also give some clues on the extent of speculation build-up on the BSE and the Calcutta Stock Exchange. Market sources in Calcutta expect the badla to be in the range of 15-18 per cent in the official session, and around 25 per cent average in the informal, private finance market. This is another evidence of the unwillingness of operators to lighten their commitments at the moment.