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Coca-Cola sees rise in global volume, results meeting forecasts for quarter 

Betsy McKay  
Coca-Cola Co, in a nascent sign that it is beginning to pull out of a prolonged slump, said it expects a sizable boost in its worldwide case volume for the second quarter and for earnings to be in line with analysts' forecasts.

The beverage giant said that worldwide case volume, a key measure of the underlying business, was likely to increase 5 per cent to 6 per cent in this quarter, its strongest growth in two years. The estimate includes 1.5 percentage points of growth from Cadbury Schweppes PLC's beverage brands, which Coke acquired in July 1999 in 161 countries, and reflects strong growth in European and Asian markets, the company said.

Coke also said that it remains "comfortable" with an analysts' consensus estimate for the quarter of earnings of 41 cents a diluted share. The First Call/Thomson Financial estimate includes a previously announced charge of two cents a share for a reduction in inventories of soft-drink concentrate.The statement by Coke appeared to come as a relief to investors, who have been looking for signs that the company can shed its troubles and get back on track to solid growth.

After the numbers were released, Coke s hares rose $2.8125 to $59.9375 in 4 pm trading on the New York Stock Exchange Wednesday. One analyst, Michael Branca of Lehman Brothers, was buoyed enough to raise his earnings forecast for the full year by two cents to $1.45 a share. Analysts cited improving global economies and currency rates, as well as easy comparisons with last year's second quarter, as the main reasons for the improvement.

Coke expects to record its biggest volume gain for the quarter in Europe, where weak emerging economies and a contaminated-drinks scare contributed to a 2 per cent decline in global volume in the second quarter last year. Coke now expects to post volume growth in the region of 11 per cent to 12 per cent, including the Cadbury brands. Better-than-expected volume growth in Germany also contributed to the improvement, analysts said.

The benefits of a corporate restructuring, such as giving greater authority to executives in the field, also helped boost volumes, analysts said, although they cautioned that the real fruits of Chairman Douglas Daft's overhaul won't be detectable until sometime next year.

But some key markets remain sluggish, and some analysts said it will still take some effort for Coke to reach its target of 5 per cent to 6 per cent worldwide volume growth for this year.

The beverage company will face more difficult comparisons in the third and fourth quarters, said Andrew Conway, an analyst with Morgan Stanley Dean Witter. "Volume and profit performance in the second half of the year is no slam dunk," he said. "They will need to accelerate volume off of tougher comparisons."

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