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Sensex likely to gain strength in a month, rally to 5560 points 

Manish Shah  
On Friday, the BSE Sensex ended the week with a close at 4748 points. For the week, the index closed with a net gain of 22 odd points over the close of the previous week. The index was largely stagnant for the week, with the software stocks attracting heavy volatility. There were some handsome winners for the week, ITC Ltd and Larsen & Toubro and Hindustan Lever.

If there were some winners, then stocks in the software sector were mostly sideways or bound in a range. The volumes in the market have also seen a very good increase.

The early part of the week saw some heavy selling in the market. This was, to an extent, triggered by the report on the government disinvestments that was released last week. The market clearly did not like what it was offered. What the investors are looking for was the stocks in the refinery sector and in the telecom sector. But what they were offered was not what they wanted. It is doubtful that there would be many takers for MMTC and some hotels. The disinvestment should have been in MTNL, VSNL and the refinery stocks. There is a big fancy for the stocks in telecom sector.

Looking at the prices of other telecom stocks, there is no reason why MTNL should not quote at a much better price then what it is quoting at currently. Better market price for MTNL would have ensured better prices for other PSU stocks. The market should have been given what it wants it would have been better for the market as a whole.

Friday was the last trading day of the month and it makes sense to take a look at the monthly charts. Now on the monthly charts, the month of May 2000 was a 'hammer'. But this is pattern has to be confirmed. This month the index has, on the monthly charts, the index has again formed a strong white candle. The current month's candle has engulfed the previous month's real body. Thus we have a 'bullish engulfing pattern' on the monthly charts. This is a very bullish development. Now let us take a look at the weekly charts.

The index has just closed above the falling trendline and this is a very bullish development. Now we know that the 200-day Moving average is around the level of 4900 points and this becomes a very strong resistance level. On the daily charts, the index has formed a 'doji' on the last trading day of the week. This is a sign of indecision in the market. But on the daily charts, the index has broken above the falling trendline and the breakout has been accompanied by an increase in volumes. The market may see a rally provided it breaks above the level of 4849 points. On the flip side, one may adopt a cautious view on the market if the index breaks below the level of 4648 points.

Our view on the market is bullish and one may consider being on the long side of the market. It expected that the index could rally to around the level of 5560 points in a month's time. One may consider being on the long side of the market. In the forthcoming week, the index could go in a sideways range for sometime, but if one is not too concerned about the short term movements, then the market has a lot to offer. Century TextilesThe price is in a strong up trend and only on Friday the price has started to go on record volumes.

Now notice in the charts that the level of Rs 55-58 is a strong resistance level and the price may see a rally to around Rs 75-80 in the medium term once there is a break above the level of Rs 58. One may buy on break out and keep a stop loss below Rs 49.50.

Colgate Palmolive
The price of this stock is just below its falling trendline and a break above the falling trendline should result in the price rallying to around Rs 228 in the medium term. The price should break above the level of Rs 187 should there has to be a rally. One may buy the stock on breakout and keep a stop loss below Rs 172.

Satyam Computers
The price of this stock is forming a big inverse head & shoulder pattern. The price of this stock may see a rally to around Rs 300 odd levels once it breaks above Rs 3005 points. There is a good chance that the price may rally further once there is a break out above the level of Rs 3500. For now once may buy the stock at current at current levels and keep a stop loss below Rs 2685.

Glaxo
The price of this stock may see a rally once it breaks above the level of Rs 442 to around Rs 462. One may buy on break out. Keep a stop loss below Rs 435.

Himachal Futuristic
In the final closing hours of Friday the price of this stock has saw a remarkable turn. The price may rally on break above Rs 1508 to Rs 1542 and if the price manages to break above the level of Rs 1542 it can rally to Rs 1594. One may buy on break out and keep a stop loss below Rs 1400.

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