However, it has not yet rained in most of the Saurashtra and Kutch region, which contributes one-fourth of the country's total groundnut production and also produces one-fifth of the country's cotton.

Having witnessed one of the worst droughts in the recent times last year (1999-2000), experts feel, farmers might opt for shorter duration crops and that which grows in less rain even if monsoon sets in its full vigour in a couple of days. And, in case monsoon is delayed up to July 15, the area under groundnut and cotton is likely to fall sharply by 47 per cent and 22 per cent respectively, that under paddy by 40 per cent and bajra 20 per cent. The short and sharp pre-monsoon showers received in the paddy-growing area in south Gujarat in May was not significant enough for sowing.

However, as has been experienced in the years of delayed monsoon, experts forsee the area under castor, sesamum, guar seed, pulses and fodder, which can sustain on less moisture, to grow. Not to leave anything to chance, the Gujarat Government has in the meantime prepared a series of contingency plans for the current year in case monsoon plays truant till June 30, July 15 and not even till August 15.

As against June 15 being the average date for south-west monsoon from the Arabian Sea to break in Gujarat, now that a south-west monsoon from the Bay of Bengal has hit the state just before the first contingency plan (July 1-15) period begins, there might be some shortfall in the area under kharif crops.

The high-level Weather Watch Group (WWG) - comprising officials from the state agriculture and revenue departments, relief commissionerate, Gujarat Agricultural University, Indian Meteorological Department, Central Remote Sensing and Air Force - took stock of the situation at the state capital last Thursday.

WWG observed that the situation is not yet hopeless as the monsoon might gather momentum with the low pressure in eastern India moving towards north-westwardly direction.

However, the state's principal secretary (agriculture) PK Mishra does not want to leave anything to chance, taking all precautions to meet any eventuality, including keeping adequate stocks of seeds and fertilisers at distribution centres. As per the second contingency plan (July 1-15), he said, the area under groundnut is estimated to fall from 18.50 to just 10 lakh hectares (ha), cotton from 15.50 to 12 lakh ha, paddy from seven to four lakhs ha and bajra from 8.5 to seven lakh ha.

At the same time, area under castor is expected to swell by default from 3.50 to six lakh ha, sesamum from three to five lakh ha, guar seed from 2.65 to three lakh ha, pulses from seven to 10 lakh ha and fodder from five to 10 lakh ha. The area under other crops are unlikely to change much even if monsoon breaks by July 15.

However, Mishra pointed, it is very difficult to predict kharif production at this stage as the monsoon is already late. In Gujarat, it usually rains in three spells during the monsoon (mainly between June 15 and September 15). Farmers start sowing operation after the first spell itself, next two spells helping germinating and sprouting. Then, he said, there would be variations in cropping pattern for each crop. In years of delayed monsoon, farmers tend to go for spreading variety of groundnut instead of erect variety, for local cotton instead of hybrid varieties and hybrid castor. The area under local jowar, which is used for both coarse cereal and fodder, usually double in years of delayed monsoon and drought, farmers knowing well that fodder would be greater demand. Mishra said that the state has prepared even a third contingency plan, in case monsoon is delayed up to August 15.