For example, there have been improvement on several fronts. The volume growth of 34 per cent and 27.3 per cent growth in 1999-2000 was certainly impressive.

The rate of growth in volume as well sales was the highest since 1995-96. The supply of vehicles to the government had shown a sharp improvement as a result of Kargil conflict last year. At the same time, profit at the net level was up from Rs 2.03 crore to Rs 7.84 crore.

This was possible despite a sharp fall in other income components which fell from Rs 35.3 crore to Rs 12.7 crore. A sharp reduction in cost has been the main profit booster. A decline in interest burden also helped.

The inventory levels have improved from Rs 427.7 crore to Rs 457.7 crore, which was not very significant in comparison of a 27.3 per cent growth in sales. At the same time, debts have shown a decline from Rs 760.5 crore to Rs 756.1 crore, a major improvement and suggested better market conditions.

In fact, backed by improved performance, the management proposed a 35 per cent dividend as against 10 per cent paid last year. Overall, the performance for the year March 2000 was impressive.

While the latest performance has been good, with no major improvement in demand for the HCVs, revenues may not be able to sustain the last year's growth rate.

Besides, the cost-cutting process which took place last year may not show a further decline from the current levels. As such,unless there is a sharp jump in revenue, profit margins are unlikely to show a major improvement from the current level.

While outlook for the performance is mixed, the hiving off of its engine manufacturing facility may also give a boost to the stock price.

However, this is not likely to be very sharp as this has been factored in the stock price to a large extent.

As far as the technical position is concerned, the outlook is far from impressive. For a peak of Rs 160 in January this year, the stock has been on a steady decline, and has broken all the support levels in the process.

The next major base for the stock is at around Rs 25. For the short-term player, the outlook is likely to improve above Rs 76, and next hurdle for the stock is a Rs 160.