By 2002, Microsoft will be managing at least eight operating systems that share core new technology (NT) but also require parallel development efforts, shipping schedules and marketing. By 2003, 75 per cent of enterprises with more than 5,000 employees will be managing at least four different variants of the Windows 2000 operating system, each of which will require unique administration, testing and deployment efforts. Although, Microsoft pricing will remain ostensibly flat, enterprises using Microsoft software should expect to pay as much as 50 per cent more per year through 2002 as a result of changes to terms and conditions. These are the findings of the case study entitled "The Windows 2000 scenario," prepared by Chris Moriss, Gartner's vice president and research director.

Moriss said that Microsoft in 2002 will introduce a "mass market" package of Windows 2000 (code named Neptune). Windows NT server will remain less stable than HP-UX, Solaris, AIX, Linux and OS/400 through 2003.

Moriss said that the gap between the demand for NT server skills and the supply of NT server skills would widen every year through 2001. Low-end pressure (from Linux and others) will force Microsoft to produce a new entry Windows 2000 server package list priced at $200 or less by 2001. Moriss pointed out that Windows 2000 will be less reliable than Windows NT 4.0 until first half of 2001 and year end. At least 70 per cent of the NT server installed base will skip Windows 2000.