Spot dollar
The rupee went to an intra-day high of 45.76/77 on Thursday where it closed. Opening the day at 45.81/83, the rupee gained a shade on continuing dollar inflows. "The rupee has stabilised. Dollar inflows were good with quite a many foreign institutional investors selling dollars through their banks", a dealer said. The rupee came under slight pressure in the morning on import covering. A few banks bought dollars to take advantage of the longer-spot date, which is shifted to next Tuesday because of Friday's holiday.. Softer call rates after the RBI cut the one-day and four-day repos rate by 50 basis points each to 13.50% and 14% respectively saw cash/spot quoted lower at 3/4 paise (6/6.50 paise) with tom/spot also at 3/4 paise (5/5.50 paise) due to the long settlement period. The RBI fixed its reference rate for the dollar at 45.83 as against its previous fix at 45.79.
FORECAST: Rupee seen holding current levels on Monday.

Forward premiums
Forward premiums drifted lower on Thursday on the back of a decline in call rates and lowering of the cut-off rate at the RBI repos auction. The six-month annualised forward premia quoted at 4.90% (5.15%). "Forward premiums, particularly in near-term, quoted softer on scattered receiving by a few state-run banks. The marginal decline in call rates and RBI's steps saw near term premiums move down", a dealer said, adding: "Far forwards held steady". September dollar quoted at 16/18 paise (21/22 paise) while in the far forwards, April dollars closed at 141/142 paise (146/148 paise), May at 157//159 paise (162/164 paise) with June at 174/176 paise (178/180 paise)The country's balance of payments is also expected to be square in 2000/01 (April-March) after four years of surplus. It showed a $6.4 billion surplus in 1999/2000.

FORECAST: Premiums seen holding steady on Monday.

Gilts
Bond prices gained on Thursday. The 12.50 per cent 2004 was seen at Rs 104.90 (Rs 104.45); 11% 2000 was dealt at Rs 99.60 (Rs 99.25). The newly issued 11.40% 2008 opened at Rs 99.40 and gained to Rs 99.80. "The bond market reacted to the Reserve Bank's cut in the one-day and four-day repos rate by 50 basis points each to 13.50% and 14% respectively", a dealer with a primary dealership said, adding: "The stability in the forex market also bouyed prices". The outstanding amount under the Reserve Bank's liquidity adjustment facility availed of at the bank rate stood at Rs 11,387 crore (Rs 11,295 crore). The Reserve Bank accepted 9 bids for Rs 1,240 crore at 13.50% at its one-day repos and 10 bids for Rs 1,210 crore at 14% at its six-day repos.
FORECAST: Bond prices seen a shade higher on Saturday.

-- (Compiled by Raghu Mohan)