By Jayashree Jakhade

Yes, it is a record of sorts for India. On May 11, the billionth child of the sub-continent was born. The figure is both awesome and worrisome. Awesome, due to the sheer number. Worrisome, as it is a warning signal for the Indian demographers to wake up to the reality of the adverse consequences that a mammoth and growing population could have on the economic growth of the country.

Prime minister Atal Behari Vajpayee had this to say on the occasion: "This is a serious matter that is both cause for concern and introspection. Concern over the impact that a runaway population growth is bound to have on the nation's economic and natural and other resources; introspection over where we went wrong and how we can stabilise our population."

It is a paradoxical situation, though. On the one hand, the country is self-sufficient in foodgrain production and feeding million mouths appears to be no problem at all. Five million tonnes of buffer stock should be sufficient. But, the question is this: is food the only criteria to measure quality of life?

The question is relevant because there has been a fall in the quality of life: living standards and literacy rates have dipped down drastically, both for the rural and urban masses. Hence, even as India has been progressively moving ahead, Human Index Development figures put all claims of high growth in the pale.

Migration mounting
Even after 53 years of independence and 11 years of economic reforms, as much as 37 per cent of the Indian population still lives below the poverty line. Over 50 per cent of the urban populace live in slums and a mere 20 per cent have access to clean sanitation. When an illiteracy rate of just 40 per cent is mentioned, it sounds good for a population of such magnitude. But, one only has to look at the past figures to cut short jubiliation.

For, even as population has been rising at an alarming speed, literacy rates have remained stagnant. So then, what are the achievements that India can feel proud about?

Time and again, successive governments have been focussing on improving the living conditions of the masses. Huge social outlays towards achieving this social welfare goal have been sanctioned. But, as usual, implementation of policies has hit the speed- breaker.

Consider: as much as 53 per cent of the children are undernourished and are underweight, even though there is no food scarcity in the country. Only two-thirds of the children in the age group of six to 14 years attend school and just a little more than half the population completes more than four years of education. Such pitiable are the conditions in the urban areas of the sub-continent.

More than half of India's population still lives in rural pockets. When one traverses to rural India, one can see that conditions are much worse. Development schemes which have been lopsided favouring the urban populace have only added to the woes of the poor. There are no proper schools, there is a lack of trained teachers and books and study material are inadequate. Even as migration from the villages to the cities is high, there is still a severe shortage of schools and colleges. Such migration to urban areas is mounting and this is a serious problem before the cities, whose infrastructure is already strained.

The main cause
Such poor conditions are due to rising population, which is the root cause of all economic evils. The biggest hurdle that is limiting and stopping India from realising its immense potential is its inability to control population growth.

What makes the task of uplifting the poor and the deprived more daunting is this: at the current rate of population growth, 17 million people will continue to be added every year. This will further deplete the scarce resources and make availability of food and water difficult.

If no hard measures are adopted to contain this menace of an unwieldy population, it would only become more complex in the future. Certain harsh measures taken in China such as imprisonment and non-availability of ration after the second child could be considered back home too to curb population growth. A rethinking by the government on these is necessary or else India's path to progress will only be retrograde.

For, a peek at the likely scenario in the next 50 years is quite disquietening. Yes, in the next 50 years, population in the Indian sub-continent (India, Pakistan and Bangladesh) is projected to touch a staggering 2,100 million. Hence, just setting up a National Population Council will serve no purpose. The root cause of the problem need to be attacked.

No doubt, a beginning has been made but much more needs to be done. Yes, the fertility rate is down at 3.1 for women of child-bearing age from over six, which was the case 50 years ago. But, advances in medical science has increased life expectancy levels from 39 over the same period to 63 years. For that matter, population growth has also declined, albeit at a much slower rate to 1.7 per cent from 2.4 per cent.

China's example
China makes an interesting case for study. On the population front, its achievements are multi-fold. Not only has it reined in population growth, it has achieved better standards of living for its people. Currently, China's population is estimated at 1.27 billion. It has brought down its population growth rate to a heartening 0.9 per cent.

Back home, India should learn a lesson or two from its neighbour, if it wishes to realise the fruits of its development efforts. The 100- member jumbo National Commission under the chairmanship of the Prime Minister raises hopes. Only time will tell whether it can at least manage to touch the tip of the ice-berg. Public awareness programmes and stress on the urgency of stabilisation programmes would also go a long way in tackling the population problem.

The country's policy: makers on their part are optimistic of stabilising population level by 2045 through decentralisation of the implementing agencies. Monetary incentives are sought to be given to young couples to limit their families to two living children.

Even village panchayats, the nodal implementing agencies, are to be given Rs 500. This is to reverse the sharply falling male to female ratio. This ratio has declined from 972 per 1,000 males in 1901 to 927 per 1000 males according to 1991 census. The policy also offers women marrying and having a child after 21 insurance cover worth Rs 5,000 for life. In a nutshell, we will have to see whether this monetary benefit will work. The Commission should play an active role in implementing the National Population Policy.

But, is this the right solution in a country where corruption exists in every quarter? Higher monetary benefits will only result in fudged data to suit the benefactors and digging a hole in the government coffers.

Micro approach required
What India needs today is to have a state- wise population policy, wherein focus is on better family planning programmes to be implemented in states such as Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Rajasthan where the total fertility rate continues to remain much higher compared to other parts of the country.

This is probably because of a higher incidence of poverty and illiteracy levels in these states. Instead of providing monetary sops at the individual level, which in the past have proved to increase the incidence of corruption, increased plan allocations for welfare programmes of development of education, family welfare and medical facilities to the poor should be emphasised. This will not only help curb population but will also go a long way in enhancing the living standards of the poor. So then, it will serve a dual purpose.

But, a look at the population growth rate shows that this approach has come a day too late. Had this theory been implemented earlier, it would have saved the nation more than millions of rupees which were spent uselessly. Today, it is a laughing joke that the cost of controlling population is higher than the population growth rate. In 1952 (first five -year plan period), the budgetary allocation on population control was Rs 65 lakh and it has jumped to Rs 3,520 crore in the current fiscal. But, such a high allocation has not been able to satisfy the needs of the welfare ministry, which is pressing for a higher outlay. The shooting economic cost is a painful reminder of the fact that even after five decades, India needs another half a century or so to reach the population stabilisation level.

So, the moot question is this: is the arrival of the billionth baby enough reason to cheer about. The answer is a resounding no. Today, India has made rapid progress in many of the development spheres.