By Jayashree Jakhade

Every country has its economic and political agenda chalked out. This includes a population policy too. It is high time India set forth a population policy that enumerates measures which go to the root of the problem. Yes, it should be a policy that seeks to curb unruly growth of India's population in the future. Already, both India and China are on the brink of a population explosion. The need of the hour is to tackle this problem with the seriousness it deserves.

Starting point
The policy-makers need to start from scratch by gauging what the carrying capacity of the country is. More so, land and water capacity needed to sustain the population at a particular consumption level should be assessed. This needs to be done assuming that crop production per acre matches current levels in advanced countries.

Advanced technology has made it possible for us to reclaim land. But, the vital question is this: will the basic land available be able to bear the increasing pressure of a growing population? Again, importing cereals in case of a foodgrain shortage could only be a short-term solution. For, alarmingly the world may soon face a crunch on the surplus cereal that is exported.

The country's cropland and water figures indicate a decreasing trend every passing year. With the country's population projected to touch around 1,600 million by 2050, grainland per hectare is expected to shrink to less than one-tenth of a hectare or one-fourth of an acre. Irrigated area per person has also been declining each year since 1978, despite new irrigation works and numerous new wells getting dug. Leaving out all such developments resulting from new technology, then the total irrigated area per person shrinks to 0.028 hectare per person. This certainly is a dismal scenario.

As for the country's water resources, almost every fresh water aquifer in India is being pulled down by one to three metres per year. Certainly, this is a serious situation, especially for a country like India which is adding 18 million mouths every year and where food supply and demand stay precariously balanced.

Overpopulation not only lowers the standard of living and brings about food and water scarcity, it generates tremendous social tension in the socio-politico fabric of the country. Increasing tussle for scarce land, water and jobs only exacerbates the conflicts and tensions among the different religious, ethnic, caste and geographic groups. Today, much of the social tension in the states results from food scarcity and a growing pressure on limited resources. So, if in the future around 600 million people get added, it will only result in a total break down of the country's social system.

Failure all along
The million-dollar question facing most Indian demographers and policy-makers is how to cap the population at an optimal level. This is important to estimate, as it is a case where Indian land will not be in a position to take on the burden of such a huge population. And there have been only half-hearted measures to curb population growth. Sanjay Gandhi had introduced sterilisation in the wake of Emergency. A National Population Commission has also been set up, which itself is overpopulated with 100-odd members. Political debate continues on the two-children norm and there is no consensus particularly among our ministers, some of whom themselves have four to five children! As for the issue about monetary incentives and disincentives, it is still caught in a tangle. And finally, lesser said the better about the implementation of these measures.

In 1952, India was the first sovereign nation to pursue a policy to curb its population. But paradoxically, 53 years have elapsed and this pioneering nation finds itself at the top of charts among the most populated nations of the world. After half a century of family planning, the number of children that an average Indian woman bears is around four. And the replacement level is around two children per couple.

Surprisingly, even at the replacement level, our population could not stabilise for several decades. This is because a disproportionately large number is moving into the reproductive age bracket. It was this realisation which had led China, nearly 20 years ago, to shift its goal from a two-child family to an one-child family.

Back home, India has experimented with different methods to stabilise its population - the rhythm method, sterilisation, free distribution of contraceptives, et al. But, at the end of it, things have failed miserably for the population-planners of the country. The country's birth rate hovers around the 30 per thousand mark. And, it was only in 1971 that abortion was legalised.

Thanks to government’s all round failure to curb the growing menace of an exploding population, numerous foreign agencies such as USAID, UNDP, Ford Foundation, WHO, Unicef and the World Population Council have pitched in to help. Today, India is receiving bilateral aid from many countries for funding its population programme.

During the Emergency in 1975, an earnest beginning was made to control the country's population. But, there were no actual policy changes and bureaucratic hurdles were galore in the implementation process. This had led to the worsening of the situation in some states.

National Population Policy
This policy, which was formulated in 1976, did not focus only on reducing the actual number of persons. It was more farsighted to include healthcare and nutrition and emphasised more on women education.

A fall out of the policy was this: first child girl education would be made free till the 12 th standard. Although policy intentions were proper, what went wrong was the direction, the focus and the measures announced had inappropriate focus on human development. To date, policy-makers have failed to give a correct answer. In India, contraceptive research still contains flaws and many women are hesitant about having a medical examination. India should invest large sums of money in calling in international bodies who can develop contraceptives more suited for Indian conditions.

On the question of Human Development, India still lags far behind. Firstly, India should focus on educating young girls, who will automatically accelerate the pace for a shift to smaller families. Available data shows that more educated the women are, fewer children they have.

Consider, the cases of Kerala and Tamil Nadu, where the literacy level is very high and mid-day meals are provided to school-goers. This attracts girls to go in for school education and this has brought about impressive results as far as population is concerned.

Even today, many states lack the necessary education infrastructure and it will take a while until things brighten up. Thus, the best immediate option is to improve the coverage of family planning services. Although a large part of the government funds are being spent on healthcare and medical facilities, satisfactory results are not coming in.

Even today, India boasts of having the best of medical facility centres but many villages even do not have basic dispensaries, leave alone hospitals or medical research institutions. No electricity, no family planning centres and no medical shop, these are the causes behind the burgeoning population.

What India needs today is to prioritise its requirements. If things are not taken in the right stride, days when stern steps such as compulsory sterilisation have to be adopted will not be far away. If the government is serious about curbing population, it should not waste any time. Else, the issue will go out of hand.