By Jayashree Jakhade

Astha, the billionth baby of the Indian sub-continent, was born on May 11, 2000. She is born in an India, which is on a growth path, where life expectancy for women has improved to go beyond 60 years, where certain diseases have been totally eradicated and which is fast integrating into the new economy.

Then, Astha need not worry about being a burdensome girl child. In fact, she may well prove to be an asset, provided the policy- makers do not mess around and formulate policies that accelerate economic growth. So, Astha need not pray for her safe and secure future. Rather, prayers are needed to guide the policy-makers of our country so that they chalk out proactive policies to usher in a new economic order.

There has been so much ecstasy over the birth of the billionth child in India. But, looking at the dismal economic conditions that the country is in, there isn't much to cheer about. True, for those thinly-populated countries, it would have been a great moment. In such countries, the issue is how to have more people inhabiting vast areas of land. It is just the reverse in case of India, where land is scarce and people inhabiting it are far too many.

India is the most populated country of the world, next only to China which is still the most populated country of the world. But, China has adopted certain harsh measures to check its population growth. And it has been very successful in curbing growth in its population. Meanwhile, many prophesy that by 2054 India will be able to create history of sorts by graduating to become the world’s most populated nation.

Whenever India was compared to China, whether it was on social, industrial or technological development, we have always been ranked next to China. So is the case when it comes to population as well. Is this true? Had we judged population figures by mere head count, India might have crossed the billionth mark much earlier. Reason: there are nagging doubts about the reliability of population data.

National Population Policy
What needs to be done now?
A 100-member committee has been assigned the next-to-impossible task of working out the modalities of controlling India’s burgeoning population and stabilising population growth at a particular desirable level. The question being asked now: will the committee be successful in achieving the projected population growth figure of less than one per cent by 2045?

Demographers say that bringing down the birth rate alone would not offer a long-term solution. Such a strategy should be accompanied by a significant improvement in the human development index. Meanwhile, the stabilisation rate is lowering the birth rate to a level consistent with the national economy and sustainable growth.

This is an important finding in the context of a billion-strong population and population growth rate expected to exceed one per cent by 2045. For, such a rate of growth in population could spell economic disaster for India. The country's planners, more precisely the Planning Commission, do not seem to be bothered with this prognosis.

Consider the population growth projections dished out by the Planning Commission: population growth rate will settle down at 1.62 per cent by 2001, 1.57 per cent by 2006 and 1.50 per cent by 2011. This optimism is based on expectations of significant improvements in education, healthcare and medical facilities in the country, which in turn are expected to pull down the country's population.

Balanced approach
The Planning Commission could do with this piece of advice: it should not merely concern itself with bringing down the numbers, but should also concentrate on bringing about a regional balance. For, it is true that certain states of India are scarcely populated while some others are bursting at their seams.

Also, India being a democratic nation, she cannot practice certain policies which our neighbours such as China have employed successfully to curb population growth.

Certainly, India cannot follow the Chinese model wherein marriages at 25 are mandatory and having more than two children gets a family blacklisted.

In China, communes have played a key role in population control, denying monthly rations and work to offenders. Many point out that these are the advantages of communism over democracy and history shows that democracy has only provided voting rights but been successful in breeding poverty.

But, is this what the poor deserve? And what have they achieved by voting religiously at all the hustings so far? Nothing. There has been no upliftment in their living standards. In fact, their conditions have only worsened further.

Looking overseas
The United Nations Organisation (UNO) and some other world bodies are striving to find out ways and means to tackle the falling population growth in most of the developed countries. The UNO is in the process of preparing a proactive new report alerting Europe that it may have to accept more migrants over the next 50 years to maintain its population level and, of course, the size of its workforce.

Today, the US, Canada and Australia have all accepted the fact that migration of labour into their lands could be the only solution to increase employment. However, this is not the case with Europe, where there is general reluctance to accept migrant labourers. Polls in countries such as Switzerland, Austria, France and Germany indicate that many voters share anti-migrant attitudes. Meanwhile, European politicians fear that unemployment and backlash from labour unions could only deepen the opposition to cheaper migrant labour.

But, if Europe does not wake up now to this harsh reality that migrant labour have to be welcomed, it will be too late in the future. For, Europe's population is projected to decrease dramatically over the next five decades primarily due to low fertility rates. Italy sails in the same boat. Italy will face a drop in its population from the current 57 million to 41 million by 2050. Low fertility rates again will result in Italy requiring about three lakh labour force between 1995 and 2050 to maintain its labour force at 1995-level. Japan is also among those countries that will witness a drop in its population.

What the UN report is trying to point out and in a sense to justify is not that European countries and Japan accept huge number of migrants. But, only that these countries should maintain their current migration levels as fertility and mortality rates are not likely to change dramatically over the next 50 years. The developed world are in for serious problems, if they do not work at improving their low fertility rates.

New focus
Better late than never. The Indian Government has realised that unless certain concrete steps are taken to check the rapidly growing population, all developmental efforts would come to a nought. The National Population Policy does talk about curbing and stabilising population. But, sadly, it lacks direction.

As India is a labour-intensive economy, development policies should emphasise on increased investments in economic infrastructure such as roads, which would in turn create economic opportunities for the poor. It should also encourage labour-intensive industries so that more employment is created and economic growth can be fuelled. Focus should also be on women's education and on creating a favourable environment for women's participation in growth-oriented programmes.

True, the National Population Policy does talk about improving the quality of life. But, success will largely depend on efficient implementation. It does appear that this time round the policy is strong in intent and keen to bring about the desired changes. But, whether it will work in the long run or foment strife among people is a loaded question.

To date, democracy has worked well in India. But, for instance, the issue of delimitation of seats in constituencies has only denied the voters their basic rights of choosing their representatives as the number of seats got reduced. And, this is within the democratic norms laid down in the Constitution.

So then, what is happening today is that most of the policies are focusing on few of the urbanised metros which are attracting migrants from the less developed neighbouring states.

Rent control and land ceiling laws have virtually eliminated affordable housing for the poor masses which has made slum development inevitable. But, nothing much has been done in this direction.

The government has been right in framing a National Population Policy. But, what is required is not a cut in numbers, but an improvement in the basic needs of the people. For, if India allows its population to grow at the present growth rate, pressures exerted on its development efforts would be adverse.

It is a lopsided scenario today, where some Indian cities are bulging at their seams, while some others are very scarcely populated. Such a problem can be tackled only by better management of basic amenities and improving employment opportunities.

To begin with, the rural sector should be developed through an integrated approach. Logically, if basic amenities and jobs are provided in rural areas, the question is why would villagers want to migrate to cities?

India has always faced the problem of surplus labour. The rural scenario has been too dismal. Consider: agriculture is seasonal in nature and so unemployment levels peak during off-season.

What the government should do is to encourage non-agricultural activities such as agro-related jobs for the rural unemployed during the lean season. This could solve the problem of surplus labour to a certain extent.

And if rural India gets better equipped as far as the basic amenities such as safe drinking water, schools and hospitals are concerned, much of the population-related problems could be tackled effectively. If such conducive conditions were provided, where is the need to migrate to cities?

Another fallout of providing such facilities is this: the rural men would be better occupied. His mind would be diverted towards more resourceful and productive activities. Providing means to unwind himself would divert his one-mind track of producing children.

Consider the scenario in the developed countries. Over there, population growth is linked to purchasing power. This is just and feasible in affluent countries, as usually these countries have scarce population and the market forces at work are geared in the right direction.

Back home, there exists a huge gap between resources and population. Thus, there is no proper linkage between bargaining power and population. However, there is no reason for India to fear despite having low literacy rates. For, even in poorest of families, awareness that a small family is a better family is rising.

Saving the environment
Population control is at the top of the agenda for the Indian Government today. The realisation that population not only affects a country's development efforts, but also exerts tremendous pressure on our environment is increasing.

To accommodate the bulging numbers, deforestation is often undertaken.

Deforestation drastically changes the entire rhythm of the seasonal pattern of the land. Consider: rainfall gets affected, flooding takes place and agriculture suffers. This leads to rising levels of unemployment and gross migration to cities.

A growing population also results in all the evils of reckless industrialisation. This means more air, noise and traffic pollution, which affects the general health of the masses. For instance, most Indians suffer today from lung diseases, thanks to high levels of toxins in the air. The government would do good to encourage NGOs and other environmentalists to engage themselves in campaigns to educate the masses about the benefits population control can shower on the environment.

It would be wrong to blame the government entirely for the situation that we are in today. We cannot pass on the buck to the government by saying that its failure to implement population control policies has precipitated things to this extent. For, a look at the figures can tell you that certainly there has been a reduction in the percentage growth of the population. So, it is only mass awareness on the need to protect our environment can help things.

Here, social organisations have an important role to play. They can inculcate a sense of responsibility and duty in the minds of the people and make them move away from having large families. Low levels of public awareness have been behind the current alarming situation. Hence, unless and until the public are not involved in curbing the numbers, all efforts will be futile.

Quite often, the government gets diverted from vital issues and gets obsessed with issues concerning politics, economics and religion. Also, families continue to be conservative and consider children as gifts of God. As for the country's political leadership, it has failed to convince the people that it is imperative to restrict the family size in a bid to to improve their standards of living.