This seems to be unlikely, as in the first three years of the Plan (1997-2000), growth was 6.1 per cent, and the first quarter GDP growth has also been only 5.8 per cent.

Planning Commission deputy chairman KC Pant released the mid-term appraisal (MTA) of the Ninth Plan here on Saturday. He refused to answer queries regarding the likely growth rate for the entire Ninth Plan.

In its mid-term appraisal (MTA) of the Ninth Plan, the commission has indicated that achieving the Ninth Plan targets would be a Herculean task.

The targeted growth during the Plan period for manufacturing is 7.1 per cent. In order to achieve the Plan target, growth should be 10.25 per cent in the last two years of the Plan (2000-02), which is more than twice of 5 per cent that was achieved in the first three years of the Plan.

In agriculture and allied sectors too, performance has to improve dramatically to achieve the Plan target of 3.9 per cent. It has to go up from 2.7 per cent in 1997-2000 to 5.7 per cent in 2000-2002. Trade also fell short, 6.1 per cent in the first three years against the target of 6.8 per cent. Similarly, for the transport sector the corresponding figures are 5.1 per cent and 6.2 per cent.

Other sectors, however, did quite well. Construction with 8.3 per cent, exceeded the target of 6.8 per cent. So did communication (14.1 and 11.9 per cent) and services (10.4 and 8.5 per cent).

The MTA noted that the fiscal situation of the Centre and states deteriorated continuously during the nineties, as tax reveneus of the Centre fell as a percentage of GDP and revenue expenditure exceeded targets.

Tax-GDP ratio of states is stationary, while non-Plan expenditure has gone "out of control." As a consequence, "Plan has become a residual item" and Plan expenditure has fallen as percentage of GDP.

Basing its estimates on NSS data, the Plan panel has said that poverty came down from 36 per cent in 1993-94 to 26.8 per cent in 1999. The decline, however, has not been "at the targeted pace to reach 16.5 per cent in 2001-02." The MTA has noted that economic growth has been very low in the poorest states like UP and Bihar.

Mr Pant expressed surprise why people are sceptical over the recent data on poverty, why they are unwilling to believe in good news.

Capacity addition in the power sector, at 24,309 MW, is expected to be only 60 per cent of the target. "Private investment has not taken off." The main problem is the financial unviability of state electricity boards, whose annual commercial losses are in the region of Rs 20,000 crore. There has been some progress though in power reforms.

The MTA has appreciated the National Highways Development Project for giving a major boost to road development in the Ninth Plan. Mr Pant said that private sector participation would be encouraged in the infrastructure sector.

The MTA has taken a very dim view of Railway finances, which are in a "crisis situation." The MTA has said categorically that the Plan investment targets in Railways "will not be met," as "too many non-priority projects" have been taken up despite a growing backlog of track renewal and modernisation of signalling. Railway passenger subsidy is in the region of Rs 3,000 crore per annumum.