But all of them learnt that the market has its own dynamics and has no compulsion to reward those who take position based on only hope and not on analysis.

The petro product price rise will continue to haunt the market for the next week. It will probably be digested by the market before the end of the next week. But for tech buffies, there are more serious concerns. Apple has already issued earning forecasts.

This comes following the earlier forecasts of Intel. Both portend darkening clouds on the horizon for the infotech sector.

You will have some more forecasts coming next week. That of Dell and Gateway. If the profit forecasts on these counters happen to be down, that will be indeed bad. All these forecasts point to a slow down in the PC demand. Today we live in a world of not macro-computers but very much server based PCs. Even all the Internet and e-commerce based business revolves around the PC terminals. The cable TV as an Internet medium is far away.

It is not likely to either substitute the PC in numbers in the near future. In such a scenario, a downtrend in PC will have its impact on all businesses related to the PC. That should normally include even all the software development projects.

There are other concerns as well. US consumer spending has turned out flat in the latest figures. The savings rate continues to be negative. The entire play on the software stocks is based on valuation. And valuation is currently based on liquidity chasing limited offer of stock. But even in that situation, you just need to take a look at how stock prices of Microsoft, Intel and others have dipped in recent times. It is scary.

It is not difficult to imagine a similar scenario happening on the software sector. It is one thing to fool yourself into complacency. And it is another to take a dispassionate look at the risk and opportunity.

Currently everyone looks upon the opportunity basically in the momentum process. But the momentum process is not all that simple. To make money you need to have a strong player as also one who has the momentum potential. And what is happening at the Infy counter should be an eye opener to everyone.Surely many see a value here at the current price. But let us not forget that value itself is a fact of pricing by the market. That pricing itself is held there because of many hanging on to the position or holding in the hope that the momentum will fire the counter.

You cannot win the stock game by only looking at the optimistic side. You need to look at the worst case scenario as well. The question is will there be a momentum to Infy. And how high can it take.

It is mouth watering certainly to imagine that Infy will move up to $150 or even higher. That is not impossible. But right now all the news that comes from the related tech market in US is negative. That could pour buckets of water on the enthusiasm of traders to get into the stock.

But then that is the only beginning of a reassessment. A reassessment should also look at how much you could lose if the market ends up derating Infy and all related stocks. The derating could take place on a more careful and tight assessement of the possibilities ahead.

That possibility would take into account the potential slow down for software business. Once that sinks in, the ability of the people to under take a risk might be undermined. Okay it is a long time bet and a good one you argue. You say it could turn up $150 if you hold reasonably long. I agree, but with one exception. If the market decides to derate, could Infy slip to $75. Think about it.

If that is the fate of Infy, there is not much sense in taking a speculative stance in other counters. Because then you are doing a serious mistake. You are buying into these stocks only because they have been beaten down. Being beaten down is not the only argument for getting in. By adopting this strategy you could hurt yourself twice over.

First the mistake of indiscriminately playing the momentum game. Not every tech stock has fundamental strength. The only attraction is the low price.

But then that is a trap and you should realise. It could be frustrating getting into these traps.

These are only tactical concerns. There are other concerns which cast their shadows over the Indian stocks as well from the global scenario. India is not the only place where you can get attractive picks. If you go stock specific there are much better offers down there in Europe, US as well as other south east Asian countries. And if you are playing the stock game only based on FII liquidity you will be making a serious mistake and burn a big hole in your pocket. Time to cool off and contemplate. Not getting impatient to lose money!