Musharraf had been found wanting in returning the country to civilian authority, in reaching a modus vivendi with India on a plethora of issues, including Kashmir, in alleviating Pakistan's economic malaise and in reining in the fundamentalists, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said in a report.

The CSIS said Musharraf's "devolution plan aims to reshape local elected institutions, but meaningful change will take longer than the three year time-table the courts have set."

Besides, it said, "his cautious posture toward Islamic parties raises questions about his willingness to rein them in. No breakthrough with India is in sight. Dealing with Pakistan's crumbling institutions and other deep-seated problems is a long-term enterprise."

The report noted that Pakistan had increased defense spending this year by 10 per cent, "well below India's 28 per cent. But this is still a rising share of GDP (gross domestic product) and of government spending, hard to reconcile with the country's development needs."

It said Islamabad's "recent decision to begin serial production of the "Shaheen-I" missile makes it clear that Pakistan is not planning a major change in course in this area."

The report said that even though the government has stressed "poverty alleviation measures," there was chronic under-investment in social sectors, such as education and health.

"Female education in Pakistan is at one of the lowest levels in the world and population growth, now estimated at 2.6 per cent, means that the 140 million population could double in 27 years. Many of the country's institutions are barely functioning," the report noted.

Although acknowledging that Musharraf has "maintained some non-electoral aspects of democracy rather well," the report bemoaned the recent raid of the offices of the Dawn newspaper-a leading English-language daily, and said this raises questions "about whether the mood is changing."

It said Musharraf has been "trying to obtain at least the neutrality of a significant portion of the major political parties," the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and the Muslim League, and that while "some people from both parties may be prepared to play," it is not clear what form "this will take - or whether it will lead to the classic `King's Party's syndrome which has plagued Pakistani politics." However, "more troublesome is his relationship with the hard-line Islamic parties and militant groups," the report said.

It noted that while Musharraf has had "harsh words for those who spread violence and intolerance", a reference to the fomenters of sectarian violence in Pakistan's countryside, he had "deferred to Pakistan's principal Islamic party, for example, by rescinding a decision about the procedures for administering Pakistan's anti-blasphemy law." The report said: " He seems unprepared to insist on policy changes they strongly object to."

Meanwhile, the report said, "Kashmir is one of the few issues that unite all of Pakistan, and Musharraf's history suggests that he considers it a question of Pakistan's honor. There is no evidence that he has changed Pakistan's policy of supporting militancy in Kashmir.

"The country's economic stagnation and political uncertainty and his reluctance to pick a fight with the militants make major changes in this policy extremely difficult. Right now, India's insistence that violence in Kashmir cease before it will talk to Pakistan effectively locks Musharraf into his own Kashmir hard line. Pakistan is internationally isolated and needs to move toward better relations with India," the report declared.

"The problem is India's as well, but the sense that a dysfunctional government is taking risks with the peace of the world led to widespreadinternational disaffection with Pakistan a year ago, and the problem remains. At the end of the day, the acid test for Musharraf's government is: can it deliver?" the report said.

(India Abroad News Service)