There was nothing unplanned or unanticipated in the military coup that General Pervez Musharraf executed just one year ago. Coups in Pakistan are carried out and civilian leaders incarcerated by soldiers from the Rawalpindi based 111 Brigade. Differences and tensions between Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Gen. Musharraf had grown steadily over who was to take the blame for the military humiliation and diplomatic debacle that followed the Kargil misadventure.Just prior to his departure for Colombo on October 10, Musharraf had ensured that his trusted aides in key positions in Rawalpindi, Chief of General Staff, Lt. General Aziz Khan, and the Corps Commander, Lt. General Mehmood Ahmad, were ready to act swiftly against Nawaz Sharif. Within 15 minutes of the announcement of Musharaf's dismissal over Pakistan television, soldiers of the 111 Brigade climbed over the gates of the Islamabad television station and arrested Sharif and all his close aides and advisers.
Even the aged President Rafiq Tarar was confined to his Presidential mansion and entry denied to all visitors. Another Musharraf loyalist, Corps Commander Karachi, Lt. General Muzaffar Usmani, was meanwhile alerted and the Karachi airport taken over by the army to prevent Musharraf's aircraft from being diverted to the Sind city of Nawabshah, where Sharif supporters would probably have taken him into custody.
While coups were not unfashionable in the years of the Cold War and many a military dictator was welcomed with a warm embrace by the White House, Pentagon and State Department, the world community's revulsion towards military coups is now unequivocal. This did not happen. The United States no longer favours military takeovers. The White House has been distinctly cool and demanded an early and time-bound return to democracy. More importantly, Washington wants Musharraf to cease support for the Taliban, facilitate the handing over of Osama bin Laden for trial in the U.S., end support for cross-border terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir, respect the sanctity of the Line of Control (in Kashmir) and sign the CTBT. The Commonwealth moved swiftly to suspend Pakistan and the European Union has been even tougher than the U.S in demanding the restoration of democracy.
Musharraf is now finding that while taking over the country was a relatively simple task, governing it is more difficult than he had ever bargained for.
He has chosen to take on the two most powerful political figures in the country -Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto, who still retain significant political support, despite their image being tarnished by charges of corruption. The Awami National Party (ANP) led by Asfandyar Wali Khan, which enjoys substantial support in the NWFP.
As Musharraf proceeds down his present path, he is finding that continued rule by the army is leading to growing resentment against Punjabi domination in Sind, Baluchistan, North Western Frontier Province (NWFP) and even the Seraiki areas of Punjab. He has been forced to backtrack in the face of internal resistance, on key issues like amending the notorious Blasphemy Law and on taxing smugglers and traders. His scheme to devolve powers to district administrations has not been enthusiastically welcomed.
(The author is the former Indianhigh commissioner to Pakistan)(India Abroad News Service)
Copyright © 2000 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.