Her conviction in the Tansi land deal case is a new blow and this time she could be debarred from contesting in elections in the foreseeable future.

This is Ms Jayalalitha's real test for survival.

A slew of appeals and writ petitions are expected shortly so that the conviction is at least stayed, to enable her to contest in the polls. Legal experts opine that staying of a conviction at the admission stage in a higher court is not possible unless a grave miscarriage of justice is apparent. A recent Supreme Court judgement has set a precedence to that effect. They also do not rule out the possibility of Ms Jayalalitha questioning Section 8(3) of the Representation of Peoples Act itself. The section debars a person from contesting in an election if he or she is convicted for two years or more.

Such extreme measures are only to be expected as the future of the entire AIADMK-led alliance in the forthcoming state Assembly elections in Tamil Nadu depend on her. The AIADMK supremo can at least be sure of one certainty. The ``secular alliance'' comprising Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC), Left parties and a few others that she has managed to put together, will remain intact and is unlikely to break-up because of her conviction.

In fact, her allies will vanish from the state's political radar without the support of the AIADMK. Take the case of TMC. The party was born out of an ``anti-Jayalalitha'' stand in 1996 but today has allied with Ms Jayalalitha under the banner of secularism, in a bid to stay in the political arena.

The conviction, however, is expected to significantly reduce Ms Jayalalitha's bargaining power vis-a-vis her allies. The TMC has been talking of sharing power if the AIADMK-led front bags a majority in the Assembly elections. Ms Jayalalitha has in the past rejected the proposal outright but the AIADMK may have to dilute its stand if it is unable to project its leader as the future chief minister.

Since its birth, the AIADMK has been a one-man party and charisma has played a crucial role in its poll performance. It still remains to be seen whether Ms Jayalalitha would consent to propping up an alternative chief minister designate, in case she is debarred from the state elections. Incidentally, naming a successor is something even the AIADMK founder the late M G Ramachandran had refrained from doing, when he was fighting for his life in the US.

Political pundits do say that the verdict would have a negative effect on the fortunes of the AIADMK front in the coming state elections. But they are cautious when it comes to writing off Ms Jayalalitha altogether. Her survival record is admirable. She had to fight her way to become the leader of the AIADMK and the same people, who once heaped abuses on her are today falling at her feet.

Many thought that her political career would be over after the drubbing she received in the 1996 elections, but she came back with a vengence in the 1998 Lok Sabha elections and kept the Vajpayee-led BJP government at the Centre on tenterhooks. Ms Jayalalitha's real problem now is that her hands are full. Her appeal before the Madras High court against the Pleasant Stay Hotel case verdict is pending. Judgments in the disproportionate wealth case and the Spic divestment case are expected to come through before the elections. More chargesheets are expected to be filed.