Contrary to the scene in September, demand for diesel, naphtha, fuel oil and jet fuel sales are growing at a snail's pace or not growing at all. In the first five months of this fiscal (April to August) diesel sales were negative, jet fuel sales barely grew by one per cent and the demand for fuel oils had dropped by anything between 1.5 per cent and five per cent.

Petro-fuel sales had touched new highs in September, suggesting at first that the Diwali-eve extravagance had cast its spell over oil consumers as well. The trends of the weeks that followed the midnight announcement of fuel price hikes on September 29 now confirm, that traders and consumers were simply stocking up before oil prices could go up again. (After all, Union petroleum minister Ram Naik's efforts to educate consumers of the pressing problems of his ministry had borne adequate hints of the direction petro-fuel prices would take.) Come October trend has reversed, but the only exception is petrol sales. Motorists seem to have been racing to filling stations since April. Nearly three million tonne of petrol was sold out by August, which was a more than 12 per cent jump over the first five months of the 1999-2000 fiscal.

Petrol (or gasoline) sales jumped by nearly 20 per cent in September alone, which was unusual. For long described as the rich man's fuel, petrol is the most heavily taxed petro-product in the country and albeit, in most parts of the world. Average annual sales of this costly fuel (Rs 28.45 a litre in Delhi) have usually grown by 6-7 per cent in India.

Last year petrol consumption increased by 7.6 per cent, buoyed up by a tremendous growth in passenger car sales. The year before in 1998-99, consumption of motor spirit had grown by 6.3 per cent. In 1997-98 petrol users had only increased their offtake by 4.6 per cent. This year, when oil prices are at a 10-year high and the demand for more popular fuels like diesel are slipping along a downward curve, petrol sales are growing at an average pace of 15 per cent. Automobile companies have only done a fair amount of business since April and car sales have trudged up only marginally. Was driving around and burning up costly gasoline a new trend perhaps ? Oil marketing men say statistics demystified, tell another tale.

The growth in petrol sales have coincided with an unprecedented drop in naphtha consumption. Obviously, a nexus does exist. The unnatural growth path on which motor spirit consumption seems to have been, also coincides with the Union petroleum ministry's Solvent, Raffinate and Slop (Acquisition, Sale, Storage and Prevention of use in automobiles) Order of June 5. The order entitles oil marketing men and the law enforcement authorities to swoop down on petrol dealers and traders for random quality checks of petrol on sale. Petroleum companies have for long suspected that naphtha was being used to adulterate petrol.

Naphtha prices at home reflect global trends and go up every month, but petrol prices are administered by the government. Even so (and despite the whopping rise in global oil prices) naphtha is almost Rs 14 a litre cheaper than petrol. The assumption that a lot of naphtha was being used to adulterate petrol, is borne out by the unusual dip in naphtha consumption. Naphtha consumption has grown in double digit numbers in recent years and dropped by more than six per cent this year. The September spurt in oil sales, pushed up the apparent consumption of naphtha by almost five per cent. The high growth in petrol consumption is probably only a reflection of the fuel being sold in a purer form than before. Petro-fuel sales per se have moved slowly this year. The September spurt may have been the last splutter of the wick before the flame goes out.

The Thai have obseved a ``leave your car at home'' day. Oil conservation drives have also been launched in other forms in other parts of the world. The restraint in fuel consumption is showing on prices.

Oil prices softened in all the mega marts this week, even as statistics showed diminishing stocks. In New York, prices of light sweet crude shed 39 cents on Tuesday to close at $ 33.37 a barrel. The same day experts estimated US oil reserves to be 37.3 per cent lower than last year.