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Rising credit growth set to lift SBI net in first half 

REUTERS  
Mumbai, Oct 27: The State Bank of India (SBI) is likely to post healthy growth in net profit for the six months ended September, driven by strong credit offtake by corporates, analysts said. Analysts' forecasts for the first half of 2000-01 (April-March) ranged from Rs 830 crore to Rs 927 crore, compared with a net profit of Rs 702 crore a year earlier. The state-run bank, which along with seven associates, accounts for about 30 per cent of all lending by commercial banks in the country, is due to release its results on Monday. A Reuters survey of nine brokerages released in October forecast six-month net profit to rise 23.8 per cent to Rs 870 crore. Income was estimated to rise 5.9 per cent to Rs 12,830 crore in same period.

SBI's shares ended Friday Rs 1.5 down at 158.25 on the BSE, while the benchmark Bombay index closed 0.75 per cent down at 3,729.12 points. The stock is 46 per cent off its year high of 293, and trading close to its year's low of 155.10.

"The stock is undervalued. But I don't see any near term upside due to worries over economic slowdown," a dealer at a domestic brokerage said. SBI's credit growth, usually viewed by analysts as a barometer of the overall economy, rose 9.1 per cent to Rs 9,800 crore in the six months to September 30, reversing a fall of Rs 200 crore in the same period last year.

The loan growth is likely to cheer investors disappointed by an industrial slowdown in the first five months of the fiscal year.

Analysts were unsure how much SBI would have to provide towards depreciation on its investments in government bonds after a hike in interest rates in July.

Bond yields rose after the central bank hiked the benchmark bank rate and short-term repo rates as part of its measures to defend the rupee. "Provisions is a grey area. After the interest rate rise in July, SBI which has a large portfolio of government securities, would have been badly affected," an analyst at a foreign brokerage said. Analysts said the bank would also be helped by revised investment valuation guidelines introduced by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its credit policy review earlier this month. The RBI increased the number of categories under which banks' investments could be classified. Analysts say the new rules will result in lower provisions by banks.

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