The Fifth Central Pay Commission expected this process to lead to the abolition of some Ministries and Department s and to a drastic reduction in the size of the others. While a number of examples of such likely downsizing have been cited, the Report does not go into the details of the downsizing of functions and staff strength in each organisation. The Commission has however, taking a total picture recommended, as far as the total number of civilian posts are concerned, a 30% across the board cut, over a ten year frame at the rate of 3% per annum, roughly equivalent to the number expected to retire each year. As part of the overall package, they have also recommended that all vacant posts, numbering over 3.5 lakhs be abolished and, that there should be a total freeze on fresh recruitments in the categories of supporting and auxiliary staff and a reduction in the intake in all services that operate at the level of executives and supervisory staff. The package further includes a statutory ceiling to be enactedon total sanctioned posts in the Central Government, appropriate packages for compulsory retirement, voluntary retirement, golden hand shake scheme etc.

According to the Fifth Central Pay Commission, that the Government themselves have been self-conscious of this need and have been taking necessary action to contain the total work force size even from the earlier years, is evident from the fact that while the total number of sanctioned posts increased by 71.7% between 1957 and 1971, the growth rate came down sharply to only 27% between 1971 and 1984 and further down to 10.3% between 1984 and 1994. If one allows for the fact that during the last fifteen years, there has been a substantial increase in the police forces as well as in some Ministries like Information & Broadcasting where there has been a vast expansion in the field network, then it would appear that there has been a good measure of success in containing the growth in staff strength in most other wings of the government during this period.

The picture however changes considerably, and the extent of containment gets diluted, when two factors are taken into account. The first is the extent of automation that has taken place in most offices in the last two decades.

The Information Technology revolution has indeed dramatically reduced the workload in very many areas. Just to illustrate, the Budget printing now takes much less time than ten years ago, while the storage and retrieval of data relating to provident fund accounts can be handled by a much smaller number of officials, than in the earlier decades. Use of personal computers, E-mail and fax facilities and networking has not only considerably reduced the communication and correspondence time but also reduced the workload in typing and copying.

Gone are the days when the preparation of a twenty page note with corrections and revisions at two or three levels in the hierarchy, necessitating taking of clean copies at each stage and in the end cutting the stencil and using a gestetner machine or laboriously photocopying the pages. Most offices already have all these equipments. As more and more officials become proficient in using these facilities, the number of officials required in these activities would go down considerably.

The second development is the creation of a large number of Autonomous Bodies and also delegating more and more powers to these organisations in various matters including creation of posts and making appointments. A study carried out last year places the number of autonomous organisations at 301 and their total budget at over Rs 8,000 crores. Though details of the number of officials engaged in each of these organisations are not readily available, it is a safe guess that a good part of the budget is spent on salaries. In other words, the total number employed in these organisations will be quite large. A quick back of the envelope calculation, in respect of autonomous organisations in three areas viz. Agriculture, Human Resource Development and Health & Family Welfare shows an increase in the budget of these organisations from Rs1,300 crores to over Rs 6,200 crores in the last ten years. The picture also changes dramatically when one looks at the total salary bill.

Thanks to the last pay revision and half-yearly Dearness Allowance increases, the total `civilian' salary bill (not including the expenditure on Travelling Allowance) of the Central Government has gone up from Rs.18,094 crores in the Budget Estimate for 1996-97 (this was before the impact of the pay revision) to Rs.32,843 crores, in the Budget Estimate for 2000-2001 i.e. an increase of Rs.14,749 crores. As the Central Government pay scales act as the bench mark for similar pay revision in the States and Public Sector Undertakings, the total additional annual salary bill, over this four year period, for the over 20-21 million officials, in the Central and State Governments, Public Sector Undertakings, Local Bodies and Aided Institutions would work out to a whopping Rs70,000 crores.

If one takes into account the pension payments that have registered a three-fold increase during this four year period, the increase will be much larger. No wonder some States are finding it difficult even to meet the salary bill while many others are left with very little resources, after meeting the wage bill and other non plan expenditure like interest etc., for investment requirements, human resources development or poverty alleviation. As the Centre will have to necessarily step in to bail out these States sooner or later, the Centre's own financial position will be seriously threatened. Suggestions for rationalising staff strength and also how the issue of surplus personnel should be tackled are set out in the succeeding paragraphs.