New Delhi, Nov 1: India's exports grew by a storming 22 percent in the first six months of 2000/01 to $21.31 billion and analysts said they expected the momentum to continue for the rest of the year. Data released by the government showed that exports in September alone were $3.85 billion, 24.96 percent higher than $3.08 billion in the same month a year earlier. "It definitely looks much better then what it was in August.We see the full year exports growth at 16-18 percent which is very good," said Indranil Pan, an economist with Credit Rating Information Services of India Ltd. The better export performance has been mainly driven by demand from recovering economies in Southeast Asia which is its traditional market.
Analysts were surprised at the lower trade deficit in the six months period which was estimated at $4.67 billion compared to $5.01 billion in the same period a year earlier. They said the sluggishness in the growth of non-oil imports had offset the impact of the rising cost of oil imports which soared 86 percent to $8.3 billion from $4.45 billion in the year ago period. "We never expected the overall deficit to be lower than last year's levels.
This has happened because of the continued slowdown in non-oil imports, which has cushioned the impact of the high oil import bill", said Sanjeet Singh, analyst at ICICI Securities and Finance Co. "Robust export growth has also helped here", he added. Non-oil imports during the six month period fell 1.85 percent to $17.68 billion from $18.02 billion in the same period an year ago and analysts these numbers were a matter of concern. "All in all, the figures indicate the economy is doing poorly as non-oil imports is a function of the level of economic activity," said Singh. In recent months analysts have expressed concern at the decline in industrial output, the increase in inflation and the effect of the rise in global oil prices on the economy.
(Reuters)
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