In the first half of the post-SW monsoon period beginning from October 1, the average cumulative rainfall over the entire country is over 42 per cent below the normal. The NE monsoon usually gives good rains in the southern parts of the country. The northern part of the country usually depend on rains from disturbances occuring in the western regions like Afganistan and Iran. Unfortunately this year no such western disturbances occured, to cause enough rains in the northern parts of the country. The satellite images show clear sky over Afganistan and Iran leading to less scope for any major rainfall activity in north India.

Lack of enough rains in the first half of the post-SW monsoon period has delayed the start of winter.

The atmospheric humidity levels in major cities of the country has seen significant decline. In Ahmedabad it declined by 20 per cent below normal, followed by 15 per cent below normal in Bhopal, 13 per cent below normal in Agartala, 5 per cent below normal in Shillong, 3 per cent below normal in Udaipur and 2 per cent below normal in Nagpur.

However, the atmospheric humidity level was as high as 42 per cent above normal in Delhi, followed by 37 per cent above normal in Jammu, 35 per cent above normal in Shimla, 34 per cent above normal in Patiala, 27 per cent above normal in Chandigarh, 20 per cent above normal in Calcutta, 18 per cent above normal in Amritsar, 17 per cent above normal in Jaipur, Patna and Imphal and 14 per cent above normal in Bhubaneswar. In rest cities of the country, the atmospheric humidity levels were normal and near normal.

RAIN FORECAST Rain or thundershowers are likely to occur at a few places in Andaman & Nicobar Islands, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu, south interior Karnataka and Kerala and at isolated places in Telangana and Lakshadweep. Mainly dry weather will prevail over the rest of the country.

On November 3 the cyclonic circulation lay over southwest Bay of Bengal off south Tamil Nadu coast and adjoining parts of Sri Lanka and extending upto 1.5 km ASL. Another cyclonic circulation extending up to mid-tropospheric levels over Kerala coast and neighbourhood, lay over south Kerala coast and neighbourhood.