Monday, November 6, 2000
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Reliance Petro -- Investors may hold on to the stock 

Mayur Shah  
After the Food and breweries and the pharma sectors, there has been a rise in the activity in the refinery sector. Many stocks in this sector have moved up in the last week with a spurt in volume a few stocks have gone into a major uptrend and some more could well go into a major uptrend quite soon. Thus investors must watch and must pick up long positions in the leaders in this sector. The activity has shifted to the old economy stocks and more sectors from the old economy could bottom out soon.

Thus there is a high probability that the market may have bottomed out on October 19. However we require more confirmations on this. We may see more stocks and sectors bottoming out and going into a major uptrend in the coming weeks.

I will take a look at the petroleum sector today and see how the stocks within this sector are faring technically.

Bharat Petro
Bharat Petro went into a major uptrend on Thursday when the stock closed over its earlier intermediate top with a spurt in volume. The stock has also moved past its long term moving average 30 WMA and will now exhibit higher levels in the coming week. Those who have taken up long positions in the stock in the last week can now switch over to the investments or wait for a minor decline in the coming week to get into the stock.

The relative strength line for the stock has moved very close to its trigger line and will soon cross the trigger line. On the daily charts, the relative strength line has already turned bullish and this will soon been seen in the weekly charts. The stock has seen a spurt in volumes and this is a bullish sign.

Hind Petro
Hind Petro is the next stock in this sector, which has seen a very good activity in the last week along with Bharat Petro. The stock has been rising with a spurt in volume and has moved closer to its earlier intermediate top of Rs 130. A close above this level will also confirm a major trend for the stock. Again, if any trader has picked up long positions in this stock, they must switch the stock to their portfolio. The relative strength line for the stock has been moving closer to its trigger line and will soon cross the trigger line. This will confirm that the stock is out performing the indices. Those who have yet to pick up long positions must wait for a minor decline in the coming week to pick up the stock.

Reliance Petro
Reliance Petro is already in a major uptrend and was the first stock to do so in this sector. The relative strength line for the stock is bullish and is well above its trigger line. Currently the stock has been consolidating sideways and a close above 60 will result in higher levels.

Investors must continue to hold on to the stock, while more long positions in the stock can be picked up in the current sideways move when the stock moves closer to its 30 WMA. Small investors may wait for the stock to go into an intermediate uptrend to pick up long positions in the stock. The stock is the leader in the refinery sector and should be the first stock, which the investor must pick up.

Indian Oil
Indian Oil is still in a major downtrend as the stock is trading below its falling 30 WMA and continues to exhibit descending intermediate tops and bottoms. The stock is still well below its falling 30 WMA and will require some more time to bottom out. Thus investors must currently stay away from the stock and must get into the stock after there are enough signs that the bottoming is over and the major trend is about to turn up. Till such time they must concentrate on the leaders in this sector.

Cochin Refinery
Cochin Refinery is also in a major downtrend as the stock has been staying below its falling 30 WMA and exhibiting descending intermediate tops and bottoms. However, recently the stock has moved very close to its 30 WMA and if the stock is able to pierce this long term moving average in the current intermediate uptrend and move past its earlier intermediate top of Rs 92.50, the major trend of the stock will turn up.

However the trading volumes in the stock have been low and this is not likely to happen. Thus investors must currently stay away from the stock and must pick up long positions only after the stock bottoms out. Also the stock is not one of the leaders and to beat the indices, investors must pick up the leaders.

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