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US presidential polls push euro, yen to a narrow range 

REUTERS  
Tokyo, Nov 7: The euro and the yen stayed in a narrow range on Tuesday with the market in suspense until the US presidential and congressional elections are decided.

Many traders said the market will move little if Democrat Al Gore wins the presidency, as he is expected to maintain current economic policy.

But victory for Republican candidate George W. Bush would likely to increase market volatility, they said, though many said it was unclear what it would mean for the euro and the yen.

The euro was traded at $0.8629/34 against the dollar, up slightly from New York close of 0.8617/21 dollar, as dealers wary of the European Central Bank (ECB) interventions covered short positions ahead of European trading hours.

Against the yen, it was at 92.70/78 yenThe yen was quoted at 107.38/48 yen to the dollar, little changed from New York closing level of 107.42/50. The currency spent the session in an extremely narrow range between 107.35 and 107.49.

"The market is simply awaiting the results of the presidential election. Hardly anything is being done in the market today," said a dealer at a city bank.

Bush has been a few points ahead of Gore in recent polls and the market consensus is slightly leaning towards a Bush victory and a Republican majority in the Congress.

But the latest Reuters survey shows Gore catching up in the final hours of the campaign and the race is seen statistically even.

Some traders argued that a Republican government would likely be more loath to intervene in the currency market, thus the euro would be likely to suffer.

They said Mr Lawrence Lindsey, tipped to be Treasury secretary in a possible Republican government, has made no secret of his criticism of currency interventions.

But others argued that he would be forced to take a more moderate stance as stronger dollar could hurt American exporters.

Market players also said tax cuts proposed by Bush would likely to lift stock prices and hurt bonds near-term, which could be a boost for the greenback.

The euro remained well below levels at which the European Central Bank (ECB) checked the rate on Monday, which convinced some dealers that the effect of the interventions was waning.

"As is often the case with intervention, its impact is diminishing," said the city bank trader. But another trader at a European bank said he was expecting more interventions soon. "The ECB seems determined to repeat interventions, may be every day, or maybe several days. If they stop intervening here, the euro will go down and so will their reputation. I think they will have to keep buying the euro until they have absorbed a good amount of offers," he said.

Copyright © 2000 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.

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